Probabilistic Forecasting of Earthquakes, Tsunamis, and Earthquake Effects in the Coastal Zone
The nation's coastlines are vulnerable to the interrelated hazards posed by earthquakes, landslides, and tsunamis. In the marine environment these events often occur in concert, and distant triggers can cause severe local effects, making the issue global in scope. As the population continues to migrate toward the coastlines, the social impacts of these hazards are expected to grow.
Products are aimed for use in regional multi-hazard assessments, and might range from complete assessments to analysis tools, interpreted data, or models. We are interacting with groups tasked with making formal hazard assessments and have provided products needed by them in a timely manner (e.g., Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC), Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities (WGCEP)). These collaborations will continue to be a major guiding influence, and we plan to maintain research flexibility needed for proper response as necessary. As such, the task is defined thematically. The larger community will help to establish guidelines on regions in which we will we work.
Research Web Sites
Tsunami and Earthquake Research
This site provides general information about how earthquakes generate tsunamis, as well as descriptions and animations of historical tsunamis, virtual reality models showing how tsunamis change as they approach and bounce off coastlines, and summaries of past fieldwork in areas struck by major tsunamis.
Earthquake Hazards Program
We work closely with scientists in the USGS Earthquake Hazards Program, with the goal of providing relevant scientific information to reduce deaths, injuries, and property damage from earthquakes.
Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities (WGCEP)
We collaborate with groups that make formal hazard assessments, such as the Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities (WGCEP), providing and evaluating the latest scientific information. This site presents the most recent collaborative earthquake forecasts for all of California.
Global Geoengineering Research
The Coastal and Marine Geology geoengineering group investigates the causes of ground deformation and ground failures—such as landslides and liquefaction—that result from earthquakes, storms, and wave action.
Below are other science projects associated with this project.
Below are publications associated with this project.
Volcano collapse promoted by progressive strength reduction: New data from Mount St. Helens
Estimating the empirical probability of submarine landslide occurrence
Distribution and tsunamigenic potential of submarine landslides in the Gulf of Mexico
Earth science: lasting earthquake legacy
Three‐dimensional model of Hellenic Arc deformation and origin of the Cretan uplift
Is there a basis for preferring characteristic earthquakes over a Gutenberg–Richter distribution in probabilistic earthquake forecasting?
Chapter 3 - Phenomenology of tsunamis: Statistical properties from generation to runup
Probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment at Seaside, Oregon, for near-and far-field seismic sources
Can footwall unloading explain late Cenozoic uplift of the Sierra Nevada crest?
On near-source earthquake triggering
Assessment of source probabilities for potential tsunamis affecting the U.S. Atlantic coast
Uniform California earthquake rupture forecast, version 2 (UCERF 2)
Below are news stories associated with this project.
Below are FAQ associated with this project.
The nation's coastlines are vulnerable to the interrelated hazards posed by earthquakes, landslides, and tsunamis. In the marine environment these events often occur in concert, and distant triggers can cause severe local effects, making the issue global in scope. As the population continues to migrate toward the coastlines, the social impacts of these hazards are expected to grow.
Products are aimed for use in regional multi-hazard assessments, and might range from complete assessments to analysis tools, interpreted data, or models. We are interacting with groups tasked with making formal hazard assessments and have provided products needed by them in a timely manner (e.g., Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC), Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities (WGCEP)). These collaborations will continue to be a major guiding influence, and we plan to maintain research flexibility needed for proper response as necessary. As such, the task is defined thematically. The larger community will help to establish guidelines on regions in which we will we work.
Research Web Sites
Tsunami and Earthquake Research
This site provides general information about how earthquakes generate tsunamis, as well as descriptions and animations of historical tsunamis, virtual reality models showing how tsunamis change as they approach and bounce off coastlines, and summaries of past fieldwork in areas struck by major tsunamis.
Earthquake Hazards Program
We work closely with scientists in the USGS Earthquake Hazards Program, with the goal of providing relevant scientific information to reduce deaths, injuries, and property damage from earthquakes.
Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities (WGCEP)
We collaborate with groups that make formal hazard assessments, such as the Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities (WGCEP), providing and evaluating the latest scientific information. This site presents the most recent collaborative earthquake forecasts for all of California.
Global Geoengineering Research
The Coastal and Marine Geology geoengineering group investigates the causes of ground deformation and ground failures—such as landslides and liquefaction—that result from earthquakes, storms, and wave action.
Below are other science projects associated with this project.
Below are publications associated with this project.
Volcano collapse promoted by progressive strength reduction: New data from Mount St. Helens
Estimating the empirical probability of submarine landslide occurrence
Distribution and tsunamigenic potential of submarine landslides in the Gulf of Mexico
Earth science: lasting earthquake legacy
Three‐dimensional model of Hellenic Arc deformation and origin of the Cretan uplift
Is there a basis for preferring characteristic earthquakes over a Gutenberg–Richter distribution in probabilistic earthquake forecasting?
Chapter 3 - Phenomenology of tsunamis: Statistical properties from generation to runup
Probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment at Seaside, Oregon, for near-and far-field seismic sources
Can footwall unloading explain late Cenozoic uplift of the Sierra Nevada crest?
On near-source earthquake triggering
Assessment of source probabilities for potential tsunamis affecting the U.S. Atlantic coast
Uniform California earthquake rupture forecast, version 2 (UCERF 2)
Below are news stories associated with this project.
Below are FAQ associated with this project.