Publications
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Aftershock forecasting
Aftershocks can compound the impacts of a major earthquake, disrupting recovery efforts and potentially further damaging weakened buildings and infrastructure. Forecasts of the probability of aftershocks can therefore aid decision-making during earthquake response and recovery. Several countries issue authoritative aftershock forecasts. Most aftershock forecasts are based on simple statistical
Authors
Jeanne L. Hardebeck, Andrea L. Llenos, Andrew J. Michael, Morgan T. Page, Max Schneider, Nicholas van der Elst
Collision structures of the Prince William terrane and Chugach terrane docking along the Shumagin and Unimak convergent margins, Alaska, USA
Western Alaska’s convergent margins are composed of tectonostratigraphic terranes. On land, terrane assembly is recognized along boundaries or sutures between neighboring geologic elements with distinctly different origins. In marine areas where rock outcrops are covered by sediment, recognizing terrane sutures is problematic. A fault in seismic dip line 5 of the ALEUT project has been interpreted
Authors
Roland E. von Huene, John J. Miller
Global variability of the composition and temperature at the 410-km discontinuity from receiver function analysis of dense arrays
Seismic boundaries caused by phase transitions between olivine polymorphs in Earth's mantle provide thermal and compositional markers that inform mantle dynamics. Seismic studies of the mantle transition zone often use either global averaging with sparse arrays or regional sampling from a single dense array. The intermediate approach of this study utilizes many densely spaced seismic arrays distri
Authors
Margaret Elizabeth Glasgow, Hankui K. Zhang, Brandon Schmandt, Wen-Yi Zhou, Jinchi Zhang
Debris avalanches in the northern California Coast Range triggered by plate boundary earthquakes
Determining the timing and cause for ancient hillslope failures proves difficult in the western United States, yet critical as it ties directly into groundmotion estimates for hazardous events. This knowledge gap is important to confront as hillslope failures are candidates to be triggered by earthquakes along active plate boundaries. We identify two prehistoric, i.e., preinstrumental history, deb
Authors
Jessie K. Pearl, Harvey Kelsey, Stephen J. Angster, Dylan Caldwell, Ian Pryor, Brian Sherrod
Relatively stable pressure effects and time-increasing thermal contraction control Heber geothermal field deformation
Due to geological complexities and observational gaps, it is challenging to identify the governing physical processes of geothermal field deformation including ground subsidence and earthquakes. In the west and east regions of the Heber Geothermal Field (HGF), decade-long subsidence was occurring despite injection of heat-depleted brines, along with transient reversals between uplift and subsidenc
Authors
Guoyan Jiang, Andrew Barbour, Robert John Skoumal, Kathryn Zerbe Materna, Aren Crandall-Bear
Uncertainty in ground-motion-to-intensity conversions significantly affects earthquake early warning alert regions
We examine how the choice of ground‐motion‐to‐intensity conversion equations (GMICEs) in earthquake early warning (EEW) systems affects resulting alert regions. We find that existing GMICEs can underestimate observed shaking at short rupture distances or overestimate the extent of low‐intensity shaking. Updated GMICEs that remove these biases would improve the accuracy of alert regions for the Sha
Authors
Jessie Saunders, Annemarie S. Baltay, Sarah E. Minson, Maren Böse
The SCEC/USGS community stress drop validation study using the 2019 Ridgecrest earthquake sequence
We introduce a community stress drop validation study using the 2019 Ridgecrest, California, earthquake sequence, in which researchers are invited to use a common dataset to independently estimate comparable measurements using a variety of methods. Stress drop is the change in average shear stress on a fault during earthquake rupture, and as such is a key parameter in many ground motion, rupture s
Authors
Annemarie S. Baltay, Rachel E Abercrombie, Shanna Xianhui Chu, Taka'aki Taira
Elastic stress coupling between supraglacial lakes
Supraglacial lakes have been observed to drain within hours of each other, leading to the hypothesis that stress transmission following one drainage may be sufficient to induce hydro-fracture-driven drainages of other nearby lakes. However, available observations characterizing drainage-induced stress perturbations have been insufficient to evaluate this hypothesis. Here, we use ice-sheet surface-
Authors
L. Stevens, S. Das, M. D. Behn, Jeffrey McGuire, Ching-Yao Lai, I. Joughin, S LaRochelle, M. Nettles
Using open-science workflow tools to produce SCEC CyberShake physics-based probabilistic seismic hazard models
The Statewide (formerly Southern) California Earthquake Center (SCEC) conducts multidisciplinary earthquake system science research that aims to develop predictive models of earthquake processes, and to produce accurate seismic hazard information that can improve societal preparedness and resiliency to earthquake hazards. As part of this program, SCEC has developed the CyberShake platform, which c
Authors
Scott Callaghan, Phillip J. Maechling, Fabio Silva, Mei-Hui Su, Kevin R. Milner, Robert Graves, Kim Olsen, Yifeng Cui, Karan Vahi, Albert Kottke, Christine A Goulet, Ewa Deelman, Tom Jordan, Yehuda Ben-Zion
Investigating past earthquakes with coral microatolls
Intertidal corals (microatolls) preserve evidence of past uplift or subsidence with annual precision. Microatoll records are particularly useful along subduction zones, and can reveal past earthquake ruptures at a level of detail that is ordinarily limited to the instrumental era.
Authors
Belle E. Philibosian
Cyclic injection leads to larger and more frequent induced earthquakes under volume-controlled conditions
As carbon storage technologies advance globally, methods to understand and mitigate induced earthquakes become increasingly important. Although the physical processes that relate increased subsurface pore pressure changes to induced earthquakes have long been known, reliable methods to forecast and control induced seismic sequences remain elusive. Suggested reservoir engineering scenarios for miti
Authors
Kayla A. Kroll, Elizabeth S. Cochran
Evaluation of 2-D shear-wave velocity models and VS30at six strong-motion recording stations in southern California using multichannel analysis of surface waves and refraction tomography
To better understand the potential for amplified ground shaking at sites that house critical infrastructure, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) evaluated shear-wave velocities (VS) at six strong-motion recording stations in Southern California Edison facilities in southern California. We calculated VS30 (time-averaged shear-wave velocity in the upper 30 meters [m]), which is a parameter used in gro
Authors
Joanne H. Chan, Rufus D. Catchings, Mark R. Goldman, Coyn J. Criley, Robert R. Sickler