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Probabilistic regional-scale liquefaction triggering modeling using 3D Gaussian processes

Liquefaction is a major cause of coseismic damages, occurring irregularly over hundreds or thousands of square kilometers in large earthquakes. Large variations in the extent and location of liquefaction have been observed in recent earthquakes, motivating the need for prediction methods that consider the spatial heterogeneity of geologic deposits at a regional scale. Contemporary regional-scale l
Authors
Michael Greenfield, Alex R. R. Grant

Regionally Optimized Background Earthquake Rates from ETAS (ROBERE) for probabilistic seismic hazard assessment

We use an epidemic‐type aftershock sequence (ETAS) based approach to develop a regionally optimized background earthquake rates from ETAS (ROBERE) method for probabilistic seismic hazard assessment. ROBERE fits parameters to the full seismicity catalog for a region with maximum‐likelihood estimation, including uncertainty. It then averages the earthquake rates over a suite of catalogs from which f
Authors
Andrea L. Llenos, Andrew J. Michael

Activation of optimally and unfavourably oriented faults in a uniform local stress field during the 2011 Prague, Oklahoma, sequence

The orientations of faults activated relative to the local principal stress directions can provide insights into the role of pore pressure changes in induced earthquake sequences. Here, we examine the 2011 M 5.7 Prague earthquake sequence that was induced by nearby wastewater disposal. We estimate the local principal compressive stress direction near the rupture as inferred from shear wave splitti
Authors
Elizabeth S. Cochran, Robert Skoumal, Devin McPhillips, Z. Ross, Katie M. Keranen

Mechanics of near-field deformation during co- and post-seismic shallow fault slip

Poor knowledge of how faults slip and distribute deformation in the shallow crust hinders efforts to mitigate hazards where faults increasingly intersect with the expanding global population at Earth’s surface. Here we analyze two study sites along the 2014 M 6.0 South Napa, California, earthquake rupture, each dominated by either co- or post-seismic shallow fault slip. We combine mobile laser sca
Authors
Johanna Nevitt, Benjamin A. Brooks, Rufus D. Catchings, Mark Goldman, Todd Ericksen, Craig L. Glennie

Dynamic rupture simulations of the M6.4 and M7.1 July 2019 Ridgecrest, California earthquakes

The largest earthquakes of the 2019 Ridgecrest, California, sequence were a M 6.4 left‐lateral rupture followed 34 hr later by a M 7.1 on a perpendicular right‐lateral fault. We use dynamic rupture modeling to address the questions of why the first earthquake did not propagate through the right‐lateral fault in one larger event, whether stress changes from the M 6.4 were necessary for the M 7.1 to
Authors
Julian C. Lozos, Ruth A. Harris

Response study of the tallest California building inferred from the Mw7.1 Ridgecrest, California earthquake of 5 July 2019 and ambient motions

The newly constructed tallest building in California, the 73-story Wilshire Grand in Los Angeles, California, is designed in conformance with performance-based design procedures. The building is designed with concrete core–shear walls, three outriggers with buckling restrained braces (BRBs) located along the height, and two three-story truss-belt structural systems. The building is equipped with a
Authors
Mehmet Çelebi, S. Farid Ghahari, Hamid Haddadi, Ertugrul Taciroglu

Coupling of Indo-Pacific climate variability over the last millennium

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) impacts climate and rainfall across the world, and most severely in nations surrounding the Indian Ocean1-4. The frequency and intensity of positive IOD events increased during the 20th Century5 and may continue to intensify in a warming world6; however, confidence in future IOD changes is limited by known biases in model representations of the IOD7 and the lack of in
Authors
Nerilie J. Abram, Nicky M. Wright, Bethany Ellis, Bronwyn C. Dixon, Jennifer B. Wurtzel, Matthew H. England, Caroline C. Ummenhofer, Belle E. Philibosian, Sri Yudawati Cahyarini, Tsai-Luen Yu, Chuan-Chou Shen, Hai Cheng, R. Lawrence Edwards, David Heslop

An analysis of the factors that control fault zone architecture and the importance of fault orientation relative to regional stress

The moment magnitude 7.2 El Mayor−Cucapah (EMC) earthquake of 2010 in northern Baja California, Mexico produced a cascading rupture that propagated through a geometrically diverse network of intersecting faults. These faults have been exhumed from depths of 6−10 km since the late Miocene based on low-temperature thermochronology, synkinematic alteration, and deformational fabrics. Coseismic slip o
Authors
John Fletcher, Orlando Teran, Tom Rockwell, Michael E. Oskin, Kenneth W. Hudnut, Ronald Spelz, Pierre Lacan, Mathew Dorsey, Giles Ostermijer, Thomas M. Mitchell, Sinan Akciz, Ana Paula Hernandez-Flores, Alejandro Hinojosa-Corona, Ivan Peña-Villa, David K. Lynch

Operational earthquake forecasting during the 2019 Ridgecrest, California, earthquake sequence with the UCERF3-ETAS model

The first Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, Version 3–epidemic‐type aftershock sequence (UCERF3‐ETAS) aftershock simulations were running on a high‐performance computing cluster within 33 min of the 4 July 2019 M 6.4 Searles Valley earthquake. UCERF3‐ETAS, an extension of the third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3), is the first comprehensive, fault‐based, epide
Authors
Kevin R. Milner, Edward H. Field, William H Savran, Morgan T. Page, Thomas H Jordan

Semiautomated estimates of directivity and related source properties of small to moderate southern California earthquakes using second seismic moments

We develop a semiautomated method for estimating with second seismic moments the directivity, rupture area, duration, and centroid velocity of earthquakes. The method is applied to 41 southern California earthquakes with magnitude in the range 3.5–5.2 and provides stable results for 28 events. Apparent source time functions (ASTFs) of P and S phases are derived using deconvolution with three stack
Authors
Haoran Meng, Jeffrey McGuire, Yehuda Ben-Zion

Basin amplification effects in the Puget Lowland, Washington from strong motion recordings and 3D simulations

Sedimentary basins in the Puget Sound region, Washington State, increase ground‐motion intensity and duration of shaking during local earthquakes. We analyze Pacific Northwest Seismic Network and U.S. Geological Survey strong‐motion recordings of five local earthquakes (M 3.9–6.8), including the 2001 Nisqually earthquake, to characterize sedimentary basin effects within the Seattle and Tacoma basi
Authors
Mika Thompson, Erin Wirth, Arthur Frankel, J. Renate Hartog, John E. Vidale

Plastic faulting in ice

Plastic faulting is a brittle‐like failure phenomenon exhibited by water ice and several other rock types under confinement. It is suspected to be the mechanism of deep earthquakes and extreme cases of shear localization in shallow rocks. Unlike ordinary Coulombic failure, plastic faulting is characterized by a pressure‐independent failure strength and fault plane oriented 45° to maximum principal
Authors
Narayama Golding, William B Durham, David J Prior, Laura A. Stern
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