Sapphire Pool, in Biscuit Basin, steams on a stormy morning. A few “biscuits” remain along the pool’s southern edge (center right of photo) – violent geyser eruptions destroyed hundreds of the features when the pool’s plumbing system changed after being jarred by the 1959 Hebgen Lake earthquake. National Park Service photo by Jacob W. Frank, July 20, 2020.
How far in advance could scientists predict an eruption of the Yellowstone volcano?
The science of forecasting a volcanic eruption has significantly advanced over the past 25 years. Most scientists think that the buildup preceding a catastrophic eruption would be detectable for weeks and perhaps months to years. Precursors to volcanic eruptions include strong earthquake swarms and rapid ground deformation and typically take place days to weeks before an actual eruption. Scientists at the Yellowstone Volcano Observatory (YVO) closely monitor the Yellowstone region for such precursors. They expect that the buildup to larger eruptions would include intense precursory activity (far exceeding background levels) at multiple spots within the Yellowstone volcano. As at many caldera systems around the world, small earthquakes, ground uplift and subsidence, and gas releases at Yellowstone are commonplace events and do not reflect impending eruptions.
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Related
How hot is Yellowstone?
What is a supervolcano? What is a supereruption?
Why are there so many earthquakes at Yellowstone?
When was the last time Yellowstone erupted?
Is Yellowstone overdue for an eruption? When will Yellowstone erupt?
How do scientists know what’s going on beneath the ground at Yellowstone? Is Yellowstone monitored for volcanic activity?
What type of eruption will Yellowstone have if it erupts again?
How much volcanic activity has there been at Yellowstone since the most recent giant eruption?
Sapphire Pool, in Biscuit Basin, steams on a stormy morning. A few “biscuits” remain along the pool’s southern edge (center right of photo) – violent geyser eruptions destroyed hundreds of the features when the pool’s plumbing system changed after being jarred by the 1959 Hebgen Lake earthquake. National Park Service photo by Jacob W. Frank, July 20, 2020.

View of Castle Geyser, near Old Faithful, in eruption, taken from the boardwalk, November 5, 2019.
View of Castle Geyser, near Old Faithful, in eruption, taken from the boardwalk, November 5, 2019.

Dr. Kenneth Pierce studied the geology and geomorphology of the greater Yellowstone area for nearly his entire career with the U.S. Geological Survey. From 1965 to present, Dr.
Dr. Kenneth Pierce studied the geology and geomorphology of the greater Yellowstone area for nearly his entire career with the U.S. Geological Survey. From 1965 to present, Dr.

- Yellowstone is one of a few dozen volcanoes on earth capable of "supereruptions" that expel more than 1,000 cubic km of ash and debris.
- The plumes from such eruptions can rise 30 to 50 km into the atmosphere, three to five times as high as most jets fly.
- Yellowstone is one of a few dozen volcanoes on earth capable of "supereruptions" that expel more than 1,000 cubic km of ash and debris.
- The plumes from such eruptions can rise 30 to 50 km into the atmosphere, three to five times as high as most jets fly.

Robert B. Smith of the University of Utah has been collaborating with USGS scientists on Yellowstone geologic topics since the 1960’s. In this interview Bob describes nuances of the Yellowstone volcano story.
Robert B. Smith of the University of Utah has been collaborating with USGS scientists on Yellowstone geologic topics since the 1960’s. In this interview Bob describes nuances of the Yellowstone volcano story.
Public Lecture on Yellowstone Volcano by Jake Lowenstern at Menlo Park, CA on January 23, 2014. The Q&A at the end of the talk can be found on the original source video (Source URL).
Public Lecture on Yellowstone Volcano by Jake Lowenstern at Menlo Park, CA on January 23, 2014. The Q&A at the end of the talk can be found on the original source video (Source URL).

USGS emeritus geologist Robert Christiansen describes his career working on Yellowstone geology from the 1960's through 2014. Bob's work along with his USGS colleagues revealed the details of Yellowstone's explosive volcanic past including mapping and dating of past super eruptions 2.1 million years ago, 1.3 million years ago and 640,000 years ago.
USGS emeritus geologist Robert Christiansen describes his career working on Yellowstone geology from the 1960's through 2014. Bob's work along with his USGS colleagues revealed the details of Yellowstone's explosive volcanic past including mapping and dating of past super eruptions 2.1 million years ago, 1.3 million years ago and 640,000 years ago.
USGS emeritus geologist Patrick Muffler describes his career working on Yellowstone geysers and hydrothermal systems from the 1960's through 2014. Patrick's work along with his USGS colleagues revealed the details of Yellowstone's explosive volcanic past and how its spectacular geysers and other hydrothermal features work.
USGS emeritus geologist Patrick Muffler describes his career working on Yellowstone geysers and hydrothermal systems from the 1960's through 2014. Patrick's work along with his USGS colleagues revealed the details of Yellowstone's explosive volcanic past and how its spectacular geysers and other hydrothermal features work.
USGS emeritus geologist RobertFournier describes his career working on Yellowstone geysers and hydrothermal systems from the 1960's through 2014. Bob's work along with his USGS colleagues revealed the details of Yellowstone's explosive volcanic past and how its spectacular geysers and other hydrothermal features work.
USGS emeritus geologist RobertFournier describes his career working on Yellowstone geysers and hydrothermal systems from the 1960's through 2014. Bob's work along with his USGS colleagues revealed the details of Yellowstone's explosive volcanic past and how its spectacular geysers and other hydrothermal features work.
USGS Scientist-in-Charge of Yellowstone Volcano Observatory, Jake Lowenstern, answers the following questions to explain volcanic eruptions at Yellowstone: When was the last supereruption at Yellowstone?", "Have any eruptions occurred since the last supereruption?", "Is Yellowstone overdue for an eruption?", "What does the magma below indicate about a possible erupt
USGS Scientist-in-Charge of Yellowstone Volcano Observatory, Jake Lowenstern, answers the following questions to explain volcanic eruptions at Yellowstone: When was the last supereruption at Yellowstone?", "Have any eruptions occurred since the last supereruption?", "Is Yellowstone overdue for an eruption?", "What does the magma below indicate about a possible erupt
USGS Scientist-in-Charge of Yellowstone Volcano Observatory, Jake Lowenstern, answers the following questions to explain volcanic features at Yellowstone: "How do we know Yellowstone is a volcano?", "What is a Supervolcano?", "What is a Caldera?","Why are there geysers at Yellowstone?", and "What are the other geologic hazards in Yellowstone?"
USGS Scientist-in-Charge of Yellowstone Volcano Observatory, Jake Lowenstern, answers the following questions to explain volcanic features at Yellowstone: "How do we know Yellowstone is a volcano?", "What is a Supervolcano?", "What is a Caldera?","Why are there geysers at Yellowstone?", and "What are the other geologic hazards in Yellowstone?"
USGS Scientist-in-Charge of Yellowstone Volcano Observatory, Jake Lowenstern, answers the following questions to provide a tour of the Yellowstone Volcano Observatory: "What is YVO?", "How do you monitor volcanic activity at Yellowstone?", "How are satellites used to study deformation?", "Do you monitor geysers or any other aspect of the Park?", "Are earthquakes and
USGS Scientist-in-Charge of Yellowstone Volcano Observatory, Jake Lowenstern, answers the following questions to provide a tour of the Yellowstone Volcano Observatory: "What is YVO?", "How do you monitor volcanic activity at Yellowstone?", "How are satellites used to study deformation?", "Do you monitor geysers or any other aspect of the Park?", "Are earthquakes and

Painting of the Grand Canyon of the Yellowstone by artist Thomas Moran, who was part of the Hayden Geological Survey of 1871. Painting from the Smithsonian American Art Museum.
Painting of the Grand Canyon of the Yellowstone by artist Thomas Moran, who was part of the Hayden Geological Survey of 1871. Painting from the Smithsonian American Art Museum.
Yellowstone Volcano Observatory 2023 annual report
Comparison of earthquake early warning systems and the national volcano early warning system at the U.S. Geological Survey
Yellowstone Volcano Observatory 2022 annual report
Volcano and earthquake monitoring plan for the Yellowstone Caldera system, 2022–2032
Yellowstone Volcano Observatory 2020 annual report
Geologic field-trip guide to the volcanic and hydrothermal landscape of the Yellowstone Plateau
Database for the Quaternary and Pliocene Yellowstone Plateau Volcanic Field of Wyoming, Idaho, and Montana
Preliminary Assessment of Volcanic and Hydrothermal Hazards in Yellowstone National Park and Vicinity
Volcano and Earthquake Monitoring Plan for the Yellowstone Volcano Observatory, 2006-2015
Steam explosions, earthquakes, and volcanic eruptions -- what's in Yellowstone's future?
Tracking changes in Yellowstone's restless volcanic system
The Quaternary and Pliocene Yellowstone Plateau volcanic field of Wyoming, Idaho, and Montana
Related
How hot is Yellowstone?
What is a supervolcano? What is a supereruption?
Why are there so many earthquakes at Yellowstone?
When was the last time Yellowstone erupted?
Is Yellowstone overdue for an eruption? When will Yellowstone erupt?
How do scientists know what’s going on beneath the ground at Yellowstone? Is Yellowstone monitored for volcanic activity?
What type of eruption will Yellowstone have if it erupts again?
How much volcanic activity has there been at Yellowstone since the most recent giant eruption?
Sapphire Pool, in Biscuit Basin, steams on a stormy morning. A few “biscuits” remain along the pool’s southern edge (center right of photo) – violent geyser eruptions destroyed hundreds of the features when the pool’s plumbing system changed after being jarred by the 1959 Hebgen Lake earthquake. National Park Service photo by Jacob W. Frank, July 20, 2020.
Sapphire Pool, in Biscuit Basin, steams on a stormy morning. A few “biscuits” remain along the pool’s southern edge (center right of photo) – violent geyser eruptions destroyed hundreds of the features when the pool’s plumbing system changed after being jarred by the 1959 Hebgen Lake earthquake. National Park Service photo by Jacob W. Frank, July 20, 2020.

View of Castle Geyser, near Old Faithful, in eruption, taken from the boardwalk, November 5, 2019.
View of Castle Geyser, near Old Faithful, in eruption, taken from the boardwalk, November 5, 2019.

Dr. Kenneth Pierce studied the geology and geomorphology of the greater Yellowstone area for nearly his entire career with the U.S. Geological Survey. From 1965 to present, Dr.
Dr. Kenneth Pierce studied the geology and geomorphology of the greater Yellowstone area for nearly his entire career with the U.S. Geological Survey. From 1965 to present, Dr.

- Yellowstone is one of a few dozen volcanoes on earth capable of "supereruptions" that expel more than 1,000 cubic km of ash and debris.
- The plumes from such eruptions can rise 30 to 50 km into the atmosphere, three to five times as high as most jets fly.
- Yellowstone is one of a few dozen volcanoes on earth capable of "supereruptions" that expel more than 1,000 cubic km of ash and debris.
- The plumes from such eruptions can rise 30 to 50 km into the atmosphere, three to five times as high as most jets fly.

Robert B. Smith of the University of Utah has been collaborating with USGS scientists on Yellowstone geologic topics since the 1960’s. In this interview Bob describes nuances of the Yellowstone volcano story.
Robert B. Smith of the University of Utah has been collaborating with USGS scientists on Yellowstone geologic topics since the 1960’s. In this interview Bob describes nuances of the Yellowstone volcano story.
Public Lecture on Yellowstone Volcano by Jake Lowenstern at Menlo Park, CA on January 23, 2014. The Q&A at the end of the talk can be found on the original source video (Source URL).
Public Lecture on Yellowstone Volcano by Jake Lowenstern at Menlo Park, CA on January 23, 2014. The Q&A at the end of the talk can be found on the original source video (Source URL).

USGS emeritus geologist Robert Christiansen describes his career working on Yellowstone geology from the 1960's through 2014. Bob's work along with his USGS colleagues revealed the details of Yellowstone's explosive volcanic past including mapping and dating of past super eruptions 2.1 million years ago, 1.3 million years ago and 640,000 years ago.
USGS emeritus geologist Robert Christiansen describes his career working on Yellowstone geology from the 1960's through 2014. Bob's work along with his USGS colleagues revealed the details of Yellowstone's explosive volcanic past including mapping and dating of past super eruptions 2.1 million years ago, 1.3 million years ago and 640,000 years ago.
USGS emeritus geologist Patrick Muffler describes his career working on Yellowstone geysers and hydrothermal systems from the 1960's through 2014. Patrick's work along with his USGS colleagues revealed the details of Yellowstone's explosive volcanic past and how its spectacular geysers and other hydrothermal features work.
USGS emeritus geologist Patrick Muffler describes his career working on Yellowstone geysers and hydrothermal systems from the 1960's through 2014. Patrick's work along with his USGS colleagues revealed the details of Yellowstone's explosive volcanic past and how its spectacular geysers and other hydrothermal features work.
USGS emeritus geologist RobertFournier describes his career working on Yellowstone geysers and hydrothermal systems from the 1960's through 2014. Bob's work along with his USGS colleagues revealed the details of Yellowstone's explosive volcanic past and how its spectacular geysers and other hydrothermal features work.
USGS emeritus geologist RobertFournier describes his career working on Yellowstone geysers and hydrothermal systems from the 1960's through 2014. Bob's work along with his USGS colleagues revealed the details of Yellowstone's explosive volcanic past and how its spectacular geysers and other hydrothermal features work.
USGS Scientist-in-Charge of Yellowstone Volcano Observatory, Jake Lowenstern, answers the following questions to explain volcanic eruptions at Yellowstone: When was the last supereruption at Yellowstone?", "Have any eruptions occurred since the last supereruption?", "Is Yellowstone overdue for an eruption?", "What does the magma below indicate about a possible erupt
USGS Scientist-in-Charge of Yellowstone Volcano Observatory, Jake Lowenstern, answers the following questions to explain volcanic eruptions at Yellowstone: When was the last supereruption at Yellowstone?", "Have any eruptions occurred since the last supereruption?", "Is Yellowstone overdue for an eruption?", "What does the magma below indicate about a possible erupt
USGS Scientist-in-Charge of Yellowstone Volcano Observatory, Jake Lowenstern, answers the following questions to explain volcanic features at Yellowstone: "How do we know Yellowstone is a volcano?", "What is a Supervolcano?", "What is a Caldera?","Why are there geysers at Yellowstone?", and "What are the other geologic hazards in Yellowstone?"
USGS Scientist-in-Charge of Yellowstone Volcano Observatory, Jake Lowenstern, answers the following questions to explain volcanic features at Yellowstone: "How do we know Yellowstone is a volcano?", "What is a Supervolcano?", "What is a Caldera?","Why are there geysers at Yellowstone?", and "What are the other geologic hazards in Yellowstone?"
USGS Scientist-in-Charge of Yellowstone Volcano Observatory, Jake Lowenstern, answers the following questions to provide a tour of the Yellowstone Volcano Observatory: "What is YVO?", "How do you monitor volcanic activity at Yellowstone?", "How are satellites used to study deformation?", "Do you monitor geysers or any other aspect of the Park?", "Are earthquakes and
USGS Scientist-in-Charge of Yellowstone Volcano Observatory, Jake Lowenstern, answers the following questions to provide a tour of the Yellowstone Volcano Observatory: "What is YVO?", "How do you monitor volcanic activity at Yellowstone?", "How are satellites used to study deformation?", "Do you monitor geysers or any other aspect of the Park?", "Are earthquakes and

Painting of the Grand Canyon of the Yellowstone by artist Thomas Moran, who was part of the Hayden Geological Survey of 1871. Painting from the Smithsonian American Art Museum.
Painting of the Grand Canyon of the Yellowstone by artist Thomas Moran, who was part of the Hayden Geological Survey of 1871. Painting from the Smithsonian American Art Museum.