Publications
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Hydroclimatic conditions preceding the March 2014 Oso landslide
The 22 March 2014 Oso landslide was one of the deadliest in U.S. history, resulting in 43 fatalities and the destruction of more than 40 structures. We examine synoptic conditions, precipitation records and soil moisture reconstructions in the days, months, and years preceding the landslide. Atmospheric reanalysis shows a period of enhanced moisture transport to the Pacific Northwest beginning on
Authors
Brian Henn, Qian Cao, Dennis P. Lettenmaier, Christopher S. Magirl, Clifford Mass, J. Brent Bower, Michael St. Laurent, Yixin Mao, Sanja Perica
Real-time validation of the Dst Predictor model
The Dst Predictor model, which has been running real-time in the Space Weather Analysis and Forecast System (SWAFS), provides 1-hour and 4-hour forecasts of the Dst index. This is useful for awareness of impending geomagnetic activity, as well as driving other real-time models that use Dst as an input. In this report, we examine the performance of this forecast model in detail. When validating ind
Authors
James P. McCollough, Shawn L. Young, E. Joshua Rigler, Hal A. Simpson
Landslide modeling and forecasting—recent progress by the u.s. geological survey
Landslide studies by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) are focused on two main objectives: scientific understanding and forecasting. The first objective is to gain better understanding of the physical processes involved in landslide initiation and movement. This objective is largely in support of the second objective, to develop predictive capabilities to answer the main hazard questions. Answers
Authors
Rex L. Baum, Jason W. Kean
The Landscape Evolution Observatory: a large-scale controllable infrastructure to study coupled Earth-surface processes
Zero-order drainage basins, and their constituent hillslopes, are the fundamental geomorphic unit comprising much of Earth's uplands. The convergent topography of these landscapes generates spatially variable substrate and moisture content, facilitating biological diversity and influencing how the landscape filters precipitation and sequesters atmospheric carbon dioxide. In light of these signific
Authors
Luke A. Pangle, Stephen B. DeLong, Nate Abramson, John Adams, Greg A. Barron-Gafford, David D. Breshears, Paul D. Brooks, Jon Chorover, William E. Dietrich, Katerina Dontsova, Matej Durcik, Javier Espeleta, T.P.A. Ferré, Regis Ferriere, Whitney Henderson, Edward A. Hunt, Travis E. Huxman, David Millar, Brendan Murphy, Guo-Yue Niu, Mitch Pavao-Zuckerman, Jon D. Pelletier, Craig Rasmussen, Joaquin Ruiz, Scott Saleska, Marcel Schaap, Michael Sibayan, Peter A. Troch, Markus Tuller, Joost van Haren, Xubin Zeng
Seismicity of the Earth 1900-2013, seismotectonics of South America (Nazca Plate Region)
The South American arc extends over 7,000 kilometers (km), from the Chilean margin triple junction offshore of southern Chile, to its intersection with the Panama fracture zone, offshore of the southern coast of Panama in Central America. It marks the plate boundary between the subducting Nazca plate and the South America plate, where the oceanic crust and lithosphere of the Nazca plate begin thei
Authors
Gavin P. Hayes, Gregory M. Smoczyk, Harley M. Benz, Kevin P. Furlong, Antonio Villaseñor
Coping with earthquakes induced by fluid injection
Large areas of the United States long considered geologically stable with little or no detected seismicity have recently become seismically active. The increase in earthquake activity began in the mid-continent starting in 2001 (1) and has continued to rise. In 2014, the rate of occurrence of earthquakes with magnitudes (M) of 3 and greater in Oklahoma exceeded that in California (see the figure).
Authors
Arthur F. McGarr, Barbara Bekins, Nina Burkardt, James W. Dewey, Paul S. Earle, William L. Ellsworth, Shemin Ge, Stephen H. Hickman, Austin F. Holland, Ernest Majer, Justin L. Rubinstein, Anne Sheehan
Large-scale dam removal on the Elwha River, Washington, USA: coastal geomorphic change
Two dams on the Elwha River, Washington State, USA trapped over 20 million m3 of mud, sand, and gravel since 1927, reducing downstream sediment fluxes and contributing to erosion of the river's coastal delta. The removal of the Elwha and Glines Canyon dams, initiated in September 2011, induced massive increases in river sediment supply and provided an unprecedented opportunity to examine the geomo
Authors
Guy R. Gelfenbaum, Andrew W. Stevens, Ian M. Miller, Jonathan A. Warrick, Andrea S. Ogston, Emily Eidam
The 21 May 2014 Mw 5.9 Bay of Bengal earthquake: macroseismic data suggest a high‐stress‐drop event
A modest but noteworthy Mw 5.9 earthquake occurred in the Bay of Bengal beneath the central Bengal fan at 21:51 Indian Standard Time (16:21 UTC) on 21 May 2014. Centered over 300 km from the eastern coastline of India (Fig. 1), it caused modest damage by virtue of its location and magnitude. However, shaking was very widely felt in parts of eastern India where earthquakes are uncommon. Media outle
Authors
Stacey Martin, Susan E. Hough
Predicting locations of post-fire debris-flow erosionin the San Gabriel Mountains of southern California
Timely hazard assessments are needed to assess post-fire debris flows that may
impact communities located within and adjacent to recently burned areas. Implementing
existing models for debris-flow probability and magnitude can be time-consuming because
the geographic extent for applying the models is manually defined. In this study, a model is
presented for predicting locations of post-fire debris
Authors
Joseph E. Gartner, P.M Santi, Susan H. Cannon
Earthquake hypocenters and focal mechanisms in central Oklahoma reveal a complex system of reactivated subsurface strike-slip faulting
The sharp increase in seismicity over a broad region of central Oklahoma has raised concern regarding the source of the activity and its potential hazard to local communities and energy industry infrastructure. Since early 2010, numerous organizations have deployed temporary portable seismic stations in central Oklahoma in order to record the evolving seismicity. In this study, we apply a multiple
Authors
Daniel E. McNamara, Harley M. Benz, Robert B. Herrmann, Eric A. Bergman, Paul S. Earle, Austin F. Holland, Randy W. Baldwin, A. Gassner
Strike-parallel and strike-normal coordinate system around geometrically complicated rupture traces: use by NGA-West2 and further improvements
We present a two-dimensional system of generalized coordinates for use with geometrically complex fault ruptures that are neither straight nor continuous. The coordinates are a generalization of the conventional strike-normal and strike-parallel coordinates of a single straight fault. The presented conventions and formulations are applicable to a single curved trace, as well as multiple traces rep
Authors
Paul A. Spudich, Brian Chiou
Simulation of acceleration field of the Lushan earthquake (Ms7.0, April 20, 2013, China)
The acceleration field of the Lushan earthquake (Ms7.0, April 20, 2013, China) is simulated using a new modified version of the stochastic finite-fault method (EXSIM) based on a dynamic corner frequency approach. To incorporate the effect of heterogeneous slip distribution on the variation of source spectrum, we adopt an empirical source spectral model and derive the corresponding dynamic paramete
Authors
Wang Guoxin, Ding Yang, Roger D. Borcherdt