Publications
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Operational nowcasting of electron flux levels in the outer zone of Earth's radiation belt
We describe a lightweight, accurate nowcasting model for electron flux levels measured by the Van Allen probes. Largely motivated by Rigler et al. (2004, https://doi.org/10.1029/2003SW000036), we turn to a time‐varying linear filter of previous flux levels and Kp. We train and test this model on data gathered from the 2.10 MeV channel of the Relativistic Electron‐Proton Telescope sensor onboard th
Authors
Tim Coleman, James P. McCollough, Shawn L. Young, E. Joshua Rigler
Estimating fluvial discharges coincident with 21st century coastal storms modeled with CoSMoS
On the open coast, flooding is largely driven by tides, storm surge, waves, and in areas near coastal inlets, the magnitude and co-occurrence of high fluvial discharges. Statistical methods are typically used to estimate the individual probability of coastal storm and fluvial discharge occurrences for use in sophisticated flood hazard models. A challenge arises when considering possible future cli
Authors
Li H. Erikson, Andrea C. O'Neill, Patrick L. Barnard
Interaction between hydraulic fracture and a preexisting fracture under triaxial stress conditions
Enhanced reservoir connectivity generally requires maximizing the intersection between hydraulic fracture (HF) and preexisting underground natural fractures (NF), while having the hydraulic fracture cross the natural fractures (and not arrest). We have studied the interaction between a hydraulic fracture and a polished saw-cut fault. The experiments include a hydraulic fracture initiating from a p
Authors
Saied Mighani, David A. Lockner, Brian D. Kilgore, Farrokh Sheibani, Brian Evans
The intensity signature of induced seismicity
We analyze a comprehensive database of ∼63,000 geocoded community intensity observations from >400 earthquakes of moment magnitude M≥3.5 in Oklahoma from 2010 to 2016 to define the intensity signature of induced events. We show that natural and induced events have similar average intensities within 10 km of the epicenter. At greater distances, induced events have low‐average intensities compared w
Authors
Gail M. Atkinson, David J. Wald, Charles Worden, Vince Quitoriano
A suite of exercises for verifying dynamic earthquake rupture codes
We describe a set of benchmark exercises that are designed to test if computer codes that simulate dynamic earthquake rupture are working as intended. These types of computer codes are often used to understand how earthquakes operate, and they produce simulation results that include earthquake size, amounts of fault slip, and the patterns of ground shaking and crustal deformation. The benchmark ex
Authors
Ruth A. Harris, Michael Barall, Brad T. Aagaard, Shuo Ma, Daniel Roten, Kim Olsen, Benchun Duan, Dunyu Liu, Bin Luo, Kangchen Bai, Jean-Paul Ampuero, Yoshihiro Kaneko, Alice-Agnes Gabriel, Kenneth Duru, Thomas Ulrich, Stephanie Wollherr, Zheqiang Shi, Eric Dunham, Sam Bydlon, Zhenguo Zhang, Xiaofei Chen, Surendra N. Somala, Christian Pelties, Josue Tago, Victor Manuel Cruz-Atienza, Jeremy Kozdon, Eric Daub, Khurram Aslam, Yuko Kase, Kyle Withers, Luis Dalguer
The widespread influence of Great Lakes microseisms across the United States revealed by the 2014 polar vortex
During the winter of 2014, a weak polar vortex brought record cold temperatures to the north‐central (“Midwest”) United States, and the Great Lakes reached the highest extent of ice coverage (92.5%) since 1979. This event shut down the generation of seismic signals caused by wind‐driven wave action within the lakes (termed “lake microseisms”), giving an unprecedented opportunity to isolate and cha
Authors
Robert E. Anthony, Adam T. Ringler, David C. Wilson
Effect of dynamical phase on the resonant interaction among tsunami edge wave modes
Different modes of tsunami edge waves can interact through nonlinear resonance. During this process, edge waves that have very small initial amplitude can grow to be as large or larger than the initially dominant edge wave modes. In this study, the effects of dynamical phase are established for a single triad of edge waves that participate in resonant interactions. In previous studies, Jacobi elli
Authors
Eric L. Geist
Mechanisms of wave‐driven water level variability on reef‐fringed coastlines
Wave‐driven water level variability (and runup at the shoreline) is a significant cause of coastal flooding induced by storms. Wave runup is challenging to predict, particularly along tropical coral reef‐fringed coastlines due to the steep bathymetric profiles and large bottom roughness generated by reef organisms, which can violate assumptions in conventional models applied to open sandy coastlin
Authors
Mark L. Buckley, Ryan J. Lowe, Jeff E. Hansen, Ap R. van Dongeren, Curt D. Storlazzi
A numerical model investigation of the impacts of Hurricane Sandy on water level variability in Great South Bay, New York
Hurricane Sandy was a large and intense storm with high winds that caused total water levels from combined tides and storm surge to reach 4.0 m in the Atlantic Ocean and 2.5 m in Great South Bay (GSB), a back-barrier bay between Fire Island and Long Island, New York. In this study the impact of the hurricane winds and waves are examined in order to understand the flow of ocean water into the back-
Authors
Vanessa C. C. Bennett, Ryan P. Mulligan, Cheryl J. Hapke
Leveraging geodetic data to reduce losses from earthquakes
Seismic hazard assessments that are based on a variety of data and the best available science, coupled with rapid synthesis of real-time information from continuous monitoring networks to guide post-earthquake response, form a solid foundation for effective earthquake loss reduction. With this in mind, the Earthquake Hazards Program (EHP) of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Natural Hazards Missio
Authors
Jessica R. Murray, Evelyn A. Roeloffs, Benjamin A. Brooks, John O. Langbein, William S. Leith, Sarah E. Minson, Jerry L. Svarc, Wayne R. Thatcher
Numerical models of pore pressure and stress changes along basement faults due to wastewater injection: Applications to the 2014 Milan, Kansas Earthquake
We have developed groundwater flow models to explore the possible relationship between wastewater injection and the 12 November 2014 Mw 4.8 Milan, Kansas earthquake. We calculate pore pressure increases in the uppermost crust using a suite of models in which hydraulic properties of the Arbuckle Formation and the Milan earthquake fault zone, the Milan earthquake hypocenter depth, and fault zone geo
Authors
Elizabeth H. Hearn, Christine Koltermann, Justin R. Rubinstein
Imaging a crustal low-velocity layer using reflected seismic waves from the 2014 earthquake swarm at Long Valley Caldera, California: The magmatic system roof?
The waveforms generated by the 2014 Long Valley Caldera earthquake swarm recorded at station MLH show clear reflected waves that are often stronger than direct P and S waves. With waveform analyses, we discover that these waves are reflected at the top of a low-velocity body, which may be residual magma from the ∼767 ka caldera-forming eruption. The polarity of the reflection compared to direct P
Authors
Nori Nakata, David R. Shelly