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Outburst floods

Outbursts from impounded water bodies produce large, hazardous, and geomorphically significant floods affecting the Earth as well as other planetary surfaces. Two broad classes of impoundments are: (1) valleys blocked by ice, landslides, constructed dams, and volcanic materials; and (2) closed basins such as tectonic depressions, calderas, meteor craters, and those rimmed by glaciers and moraines.
Authors
Jim E. O'Connor, John J. Clague, Joseph S. Walder, Vernon Manville, Robin A. Beebee

Evaluation of simulated ground motions using probabilistic seismic demand analysis: CyberShake (ver. 15.12) simulations for Ordinary Standard Bridges

There is a need for benchmarking and validating simulated ground motions in order for them to be utilized by the engineering community. Such validation may be geared towards a specific ground motion simulation method, a target engineering application, and a specific location; the validation presented herein focuses on a bridge engineering application in southern California. Catalogs of simulated g
Authors
Jawad Fayaz, Sanaz Rezaeian, Farzin Zareian

Changing storm conditions in response to projected 21st century climate change and the potential impact on an arctic barrier island–lagoon system—A pilot study for Arey Island and Lagoon, eastern Arctic Alaska

Executive SummaryArey Lagoon, located in eastern Arctic Alaska, supports a highly productive ecosystem, where soft substrate and coastal wet sedge fringing the shores are feeding grounds and nurseries for a variety of marine fish and waterfowl. The lagoon is partially protected from the direct onslaught of Arctic Ocean waves by a barrier island chain (Arey Island) which in itself provides importan
Authors
Li H. Erikson, Ann E. Gibbs, Bruce M. Richmond, Curt D. Storlazzi, Benjamin M. Jones, Karin Ohman

Apparent earthquake rupture predictability

To what extent can the future evolution of an ongoing earthquake rupture be predicted? This question of fundamental scientific and practical importance has recently been addressed by studies of teleseismic source time functions (STFs) but reaching contrasting conclusions. One study concludes that the initial portion of STFs is the same regardless of magnitude. Another study concludes that the rate
Authors
M.-A. Meier, P. Ampuero, Elizabeth S. Cochran, Morgan T. Page

A ground‐motion prediction model for shallow crustal earthquakes in Greece

Using a recently completed database of uniformly processed strong‐motion data recorded in Greece, we derive a ground‐motion prediction model (GMPM) for horizontal‐component peak ground velocity, peak ground acceleration, and 5% damped pseudoacceleration response spectra, at 105 periods ranging from 0.01 to 10 s. The equations were developed by modifying a global GMPM, to account for more rapid att
Authors
David Boore, Jonathan P. Stewart, Andreas Skarlatoudis, Emel Seyhan, Basil Margaris, Nikos Theodoulidis, Emmanual Scordilis, Ionnis Kalogeras, Nikos Klimis, Nikos Melis

A unified model of crustal stress heterogeneity from borehole breakouts and earthquake focal mechanisms

Observations of crustal stress orientation from the regional inversion of earthquake focal mechanisms often conflict with those from borehole breakouts, possibly indicating local stress heterogeneity, either laterally or with depth. To investigate this heterogeneity, we compiled SHmax estimates from previous studies for 57 near‐vertical boreholes with measured breakout azimuths across the Los Ange
Authors
Karen Luttrell, Jeanne L. Hardebeck

The impacts of the 2015/2016 El Niño on California's sandy beaches

The El Niño Southern Oscillation is the most dominant mode of interannual climate variability in the Pacific. The 2015/2016 El Niño event was one of the strongest of the last 145 years, resulting in anomalously high wave energy across the U.S. West Coast, and record coastal erosion for many California beaches. To better manage coastal resources, it is critical to understand the impacts of both sho
Authors
Schuyler A Smith, Patrick L. Barnard

Rapid sensitivity analysis for reducing uncertainty in landslide hazard assessments

One of the challenges in assessing temporal and spatial aspects of landslide hazard using process-based models is estimating model input parameters, especially in areas where limited measurements of soil and rock properties are available. In an effort to simplify and streamline parameter estimation, development of a simple, rapid approach to sensitivity analysis relies on field measurements of lan
Authors
Rex L. Baum

On the use of statistical analysis to understand submarine landslide processes and assess their hazard

Because of their inaccessibility, submarine landslides are typically studied individually and at great effort and expense to provide knowledge of the specific site conditions where these landslides occur. Statistical analysis of submarine landslide scars can offer generalized perspectives on the processes that initiate submarine landslides and can help toward hazard assessment in areas that have n
Authors
Uri S. ten Brink, Eric L. Geist

Progress and lessons learned from responses to landslide disasters

Landslides have the incredible power to transform landscapes and also, tragically, to cause disastrous societal impacts. Whereas the mechanics and effects of many landslide disasters have been analyzed in detail, the means by which landslide experts respond to these events has garnered much less attention. Herein, we evaluate nine landslide response case histories conducted by the U.S. Geological
Authors
Brian D. Collins, Mark E. Reid, Jeffrey A. Coe, Jason W. Kean, Rex L. Baum, Randall W. Jibson, Jonathan W. Godt, Stephen Slaughter, Greg M. Stock

Spatial clustering of aftershocks impacts the performance of physics‐based earthquake forecasting models

I explore why physics‐based models of earthquake triggering rarely outperform statistical models in prospective testing, outside of limited spatial‐temporal windows. Pseudo‐prospective tests on suites of synthetic aftershock sequences show that a major factor is the level of unmodeled spatial clustering of the direct aftershocks triggered by the mainshock. The synthetic sequences are generated fro
Authors
Jeanne L. Hardebeck