Skip to main content
U.S. flag

An official website of the United States government

Drought, Fire and Extreme Weather

CASC-supported scientists throughout the country are working to understand how drought, fire and extreme weather are changing under climate change and how they are impacting important natural and cultural resources. Browse our science on these topics below.

Filter Total Items: 276

Megafire Risk Evaluation System (MERES) for the Southern Great Plains

Characterized by their extreme size, intensity, and severity, megafires are the most destructive, dangerous, and costly wildfires in the U.S. Over the past two decades, megafires have become more frequent in Oklahoma and Texas along with increasing extreme weather events and changes to fuel types caused by woody plant encroachment into grasslands. As climate change and woody plant encroachment are
link

Megafire Risk Evaluation System (MERES) for the Southern Great Plains

Characterized by their extreme size, intensity, and severity, megafires are the most destructive, dangerous, and costly wildfires in the U.S. Over the past two decades, megafires have become more frequent in Oklahoma and Texas along with increasing extreme weather events and changes to fuel types caused by woody plant encroachment into grasslands. As climate change and woody plant encroachment are
Learn More

Modeling Large Fires in Response to Potential Tipping Points in Fuel Dryness

Wildfire burn areas are increasing in the western U.S., a change that has been linked to increased fuel aridity caused by climate change. Recognizing that there will likely be even more large fires in the future presents an opportunity to prepare and adapt to the expected climatic changes. This project addresses three key science questions: 1) Is there a specific level (threshold) of fuel aridi
link

Modeling Large Fires in Response to Potential Tipping Points in Fuel Dryness

Wildfire burn areas are increasing in the western U.S., a change that has been linked to increased fuel aridity caused by climate change. Recognizing that there will likely be even more large fires in the future presents an opportunity to prepare and adapt to the expected climatic changes. This project addresses three key science questions: 1) Is there a specific level (threshold) of fuel aridi
Learn More

Planning Grant: Understanding the Impacts of Extreme Events on Our National Parks: Past, Present, and Future

The United States National Park Service (NPS) declared climate change as “the greatest threat to the integrity of our national parks that we have ever experienced.” Climate change is causing not only higher average temperatures in most places but also increasing the severity of storms, the number of heatwaves and wildfires, and causing heavier rainfall. These extreme weather conditions pose major
link

Planning Grant: Understanding the Impacts of Extreme Events on Our National Parks: Past, Present, and Future

The United States National Park Service (NPS) declared climate change as “the greatest threat to the integrity of our national parks that we have ever experienced.” Climate change is causing not only higher average temperatures in most places but also increasing the severity of storms, the number of heatwaves and wildfires, and causing heavier rainfall. These extreme weather conditions pose major
Learn More

Post-fire Vegetation Transitions in Burned and Reburned Forests in the Western Cascades

Climatic warming has contributed to recent increases in severe wildfires across the Pacific Northwest (PNW). Following severe wildfire, a burned forest has an increased likelihood burning again within several decades, which can greatly alter vegetation recovery. These changes are of increasing concern to forest managers, conservationists, researchers, the public, and culture bearers. However, more
link

Post-fire Vegetation Transitions in Burned and Reburned Forests in the Western Cascades

Climatic warming has contributed to recent increases in severe wildfires across the Pacific Northwest (PNW). Following severe wildfire, a burned forest has an increased likelihood burning again within several decades, which can greatly alter vegetation recovery. These changes are of increasing concern to forest managers, conservationists, researchers, the public, and culture bearers. However, more
Learn More

Reducing Wildfire Risk While Maintaining Critical Monarch Habitat Along the California Coast

The California Coast has hundreds of tree groves where dual management practices aim to reduce the risk of fire and to conserve habitat for overwintering monarch butterflies. As the climate changes, longer high-intensity droughts can increase mortality and/or limb loss in grove trees which causes an accumulation of fire-prone fuels. Moreover, these trees provide the critical habitat for overwinter
link

Reducing Wildfire Risk While Maintaining Critical Monarch Habitat Along the California Coast

The California Coast has hundreds of tree groves where dual management practices aim to reduce the risk of fire and to conserve habitat for overwintering monarch butterflies. As the climate changes, longer high-intensity droughts can increase mortality and/or limb loss in grove trees which causes an accumulation of fire-prone fuels. Moreover, these trees provide the critical habitat for overwinter
Learn More

Synthesizing the Responses and Vulnerabilities of Freshwater Invertebrates to Droughts and Heavy Precipitation in the Midwest

The Midwest United States is facing wetter winters and springs and more variable precipitation in the summer and fall. Heavy floods and prolonged droughts are costly to agriculture, housing, transportation infrastructure, and recreational opportunities across the region. These extremes also stress the health of freshwater ecosystems that are important to the regional economy and quality of life. T
link

Synthesizing the Responses and Vulnerabilities of Freshwater Invertebrates to Droughts and Heavy Precipitation in the Midwest

The Midwest United States is facing wetter winters and springs and more variable precipitation in the summer and fall. Heavy floods and prolonged droughts are costly to agriculture, housing, transportation infrastructure, and recreational opportunities across the region. These extremes also stress the health of freshwater ecosystems that are important to the regional economy and quality of life. T
Learn More

The Effects of Catastrophic Wildfires on Vegetation and Fuel Loads in the Sierra Nevada of California

In recent years, a number of catastrophic wildfires have fundamentally changed species composition and structure across a large area of the Sierra Nevada of California. These fires leave behind many large, severely burned patches of land where the majority of trees have died. To make informed management decisions, forest managers need to understand the long-term effects of these fires on vegetatio
link

The Effects of Catastrophic Wildfires on Vegetation and Fuel Loads in the Sierra Nevada of California

In recent years, a number of catastrophic wildfires have fundamentally changed species composition and structure across a large area of the Sierra Nevada of California. These fires leave behind many large, severely burned patches of land where the majority of trees have died. To make informed management decisions, forest managers need to understand the long-term effects of these fires on vegetatio
Learn More

The Long View: Developing a 500-year Climate Adaptation Plan with the Eastern Band of Cherokee Indians

Cherokee Peoples have had a sustained presence in the southern Appalachians over the past 12,000 years, with a peak population of about 250,000 people inhabiting approximately 32 million hectares across Georgia, Alabama, Tennessee, Kentucky, West Virginia, Virginia, and the Carolinas. Early contact with European settlers caused drastic population declines and land loss, due to disease, land cessio
link

The Long View: Developing a 500-year Climate Adaptation Plan with the Eastern Band of Cherokee Indians

Cherokee Peoples have had a sustained presence in the southern Appalachians over the past 12,000 years, with a peak population of about 250,000 people inhabiting approximately 32 million hectares across Georgia, Alabama, Tennessee, Kentucky, West Virginia, Virginia, and the Carolinas. Early contact with European settlers caused drastic population declines and land loss, due to disease, land cessio
Learn More

The Role of Forest Structure in Regulating Water Availability and Implications for Natural Resources and Ecosystem Function

Wildfire, drought, and insects are reshaping forests in the Western United States in a manner that is being exacerbated by warming temperatures. Disturbance events such as these can significantly alter the amount of land that is covered by forest in an area or region. Consequently, changes in forest cover from disturbance can impact water runoff conditions leading to dangerous flooding, erosion, a
link

The Role of Forest Structure in Regulating Water Availability and Implications for Natural Resources and Ecosystem Function

Wildfire, drought, and insects are reshaping forests in the Western United States in a manner that is being exacerbated by warming temperatures. Disturbance events such as these can significantly alter the amount of land that is covered by forest in an area or region. Consequently, changes in forest cover from disturbance can impact water runoff conditions leading to dangerous flooding, erosion, a
Learn More

Understanding Post-fire Transformations in Inland Northwest Forests and Shrublands

Vegetation transformations after wildfires are a growing issue for forest and shrubland managers in the Inland Pacific Northwest. Severe fires combined with persistent drought and invasive species can slow or prevent the recovery of burned forests and shrublands to their pre-fire states, resulting in ecological, economic, and cultural losses. Forests may be converted to shrub fields or grasslands,
link

Understanding Post-fire Transformations in Inland Northwest Forests and Shrublands

Vegetation transformations after wildfires are a growing issue for forest and shrubland managers in the Inland Pacific Northwest. Severe fires combined with persistent drought and invasive species can slow or prevent the recovery of burned forests and shrublands to their pre-fire states, resulting in ecological, economic, and cultural losses. Forests may be converted to shrub fields or grasslands,
Learn More

Understanding Ridge-to-Reef and Icefield-to-Ocean Ecosystem Function in a Changing Climate

Steep, mountainous watersheds, dramatic climate gradients, and tight links between the land and sea are common features of both the Pacific Islands and Southeast Alaska. In these "ridge-to-reef" and “icefield-to-ocean" ecosystems, environmental changes that occur at higher elevations have downstream impacts on the waters below. Today, these two ecosystems are undergoing changes in climate that are
link

Understanding Ridge-to-Reef and Icefield-to-Ocean Ecosystem Function in a Changing Climate

Steep, mountainous watersheds, dramatic climate gradients, and tight links between the land and sea are common features of both the Pacific Islands and Southeast Alaska. In these "ridge-to-reef" and “icefield-to-ocean" ecosystems, environmental changes that occur at higher elevations have downstream impacts on the waters below. Today, these two ecosystems are undergoing changes in climate that are
Learn More

Using the Resist-Accept-Direct Framework to Manage Wildfires, Carbon Storage, and Ecological Transformations in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem

The Greater Yellowstone Area (GYA) is an iconic landscape with national parks, iconic species like grizzly bears and elk, and over 11,500 square miles of forest. While fires are a natural part of the GYA, climate change and land management legacies are increasing the frequency and size of severe fires. Climate change interacts with these fires to shift conifer forests to non-forested grassland and
link

Using the Resist-Accept-Direct Framework to Manage Wildfires, Carbon Storage, and Ecological Transformations in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem

The Greater Yellowstone Area (GYA) is an iconic landscape with national parks, iconic species like grizzly bears and elk, and over 11,500 square miles of forest. While fires are a natural part of the GYA, climate change and land management legacies are increasing the frequency and size of severe fires. Climate change interacts with these fires to shift conifer forests to non-forested grassland and
Learn More