Vulnerability Assessment and Adaptation Planning for Projected Changes in Water Quality and Quantity for Protected Areas in the Upper Mississippi Watershed

Climate change and the extreme weather associated with it can be a major challenge to landowners and land managers interested in the protection, restoration, recovery, and management of wetlands and wildlife habitats. The Midwest is not only experiencing an increase in average temperatures and precipitation, but also an increase in the frequency of extreme events, such as heat waves and floods. Forecasting the potential impacts of the changes over the next 25 to 50 years will be important for decision makers and landowners seeking to minimize the impacts to infrastructure and to the habitats themselves and prepare for the future. Changes in flood frequency threaten habitat management infrastructure and actions, while also carrying large loads of sediment and nutrients into sensitive habitats. The combination of acute damage associated with flooding and chronic impacts of sedimentation and eutrophication threaten habitats and the species that depend upon them. For conservation lands like national wildlife refuges, these threats undermine the mission of conservation of habitat and species for the enjoyment of the American people.



The goal of this project is to develop a vulnerability assessment of watersheds and protected areas in the Upper Mississippi Watershed by synthesizing the impacts of projected changes in climate and land use (i.e., increased flooding, sedimentation and eutrophication). This will lead to the development of an interactive, map-based habitat vulnerability assessment tool for the USFWS Midwest Region, to help managers identify appropriate regional and site-level adaptation strategies. Scientists and managers will then work together to test and apply the tool in an adaptation planning process for several National Wildlife Refuges and Wetland Management Districts in the region. Through this work, researchers will help guide USFWS resource managers in the consideration of potential adaptation strategies suitable for their management sites, while collectively identifying a range of strategies to consider under a broader range of climatic change.