Publications
These publications showcase the significant science conducted in our Science Centers.
Filter Total Items: 16784
Evaluation of dynamic coastal response to sea-level rise modifies inundation likelihood
Sea-level rise (SLR) poses a range of threats to natural and built environments1, 2, making assessments of SLR-induced hazards essential for informed decision making3. We develop a probabilistic model that evaluates the likelihood that an area will inundate (flood) or dynamically respond (adapt) to SLR. The broad-area applicability of the approach is demonstrated by producing 30 × 30 m resolution
Authors
Erika E. Lentz, E. Robert Thieler, Nathaniel G. Plant, Sawyer R. Stippa, Radley M. Horton, Dean B. Gesch
Overestimation of marsh vulnerability to sea level rise
Coastal marshes are considered to be among the most valuable and vulnerable ecosystems on Earth, where the imminent loss of ecosystem services is a feared consequence of sea level rise. However, we show with a meta-analysis that global measurements of marsh elevation change indicate that marshes are generally building at rates similar to or exceeding historical sea level rise, and that process-bas
Authors
Matthew L. Kirwan, Stijn Temmerman, Emily E. Skeehan, Glenn R. Guntenspergen, Sergio Fagherazzi
Threshold responses of Blackside Dace (Chrosomus cumberlandensis) and Kentucky Arrow Darter (Etheostoma spilotum) to stream conductivity
Chrosomus cumberlandensis (Blackside Dace [BSD]) and Etheostoma spilotum (Kentucky Arrow Darter [KAD]) are fish species of conservation concern due to their fragmented distributions, their low population sizes, and threats from anthropogenic stressors in the southeastern United States. We evaluated the relationship between fish abundance and stream conductivity, an index of environmental quality a
Authors
Nathaniel P. Hitt, Michael Floyd, Michael Compton, Kenneth McDonald
The Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP) Phase 2: Scientific objectives and experimental design
The Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP) is a co-ordinated international climate modelling initiative to study and understand climate and environments of the Late Pliocene, as well as their potential relevance in the context of future climate change. PlioMIP examines the consistency of model predictions in simulating Pliocene climate and their ability to reproduce climate signals prese
Authors
Alan M. Haywood, Harry J. Dowsett, Aisling M. Dolan, David Rowley, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Bette Otto-Bliesner, Mark A. Chandler, Stephen J. Hunter, Daniel J. Lunt, Matthew Pound, Ulrich Salzmann
Metapopulation viability of an endangered shorebird depends on dispersal and human-created habitats: Piping plovers (Charadrius melodus) and prairie rivers
Background
Many species are distributed as metapopulations in dynamic landscapes, where habitats change through space and time. Individuals locate habitat through dispersal, and the relationship between a species and landscape characteristics can have profound effects on population persistence. Despite the importance of connectivity in dynamic environments, few empirical studies have examined tem
Authors
Daniel H. Catlin, Sara L. Zeigler, M. Bomberger Brown, Lauren R. Dinan, James D. Fraser, Kelsi L. Hunt, Joel G. Jorgensen
Hydrologic data and groundwater-flow simulations in the Brown Ditch Watershed, Indiana Dunes National Lakeshore, near Beverly Shores and Town of Pines, Indiana
The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) collected data and simulated groundwater flow to increase understanding of the hydrology and the effects of drainage alterations on the water table in the vicinity of Great Marsh, near Beverly Shores and Town of Pines, Indiana. Prior land-management practices have modified drainage and caused changes in the distribution of open water, streams and ditches, and grou
Authors
David C. Lampe
Hydrologic controls on nitrogen cycling processes and functional gene abundance in sediments of a groundwater flow-through lake
The fate and transport of inorganic nitrogen (N) is a critically important issue for human and aquatic ecosystem health because discharging N-contaminated groundwater can foul drinking water and cause algal blooms. Factors controlling N-processing were examined in sediments at three sites with contrasting hydrologic regimes at a lake on Cape Cod, MA. These factors included water chemistry, seepage
Authors
Deborah L. Stoliker, Deborah A. Repert, Richard L. Smith, Bongkeun Song, Denis R. LeBlanc, Timothy D. McCobb, Christopher Conaway, Sung Pil Hyun, Dong-Chan Koh, Hee Sun Moon, Douglas B. Kent
Application of effective discharge analysis to environmental flow decision-making
Well-informed river management decisions rely on an explicit statement of objectives, repeatable analyses, and a transparent system for assessing trade-offs. These components may then be applied to compare alternative operational regimes for water resource infrastructure (e.g., diversions, locks, and dams). Intra- and inter-annual hydrologic variability further complicates these already complex en
Authors
S. Kyle McKay, Mary Freeman, A.P. Covich
Study of biological communities subject to imperfect detection: Bias and precision of community N-mixture abundance models in small-sample situations
Community N-mixture abundance models for replicated counts provide a powerful and novel framework for drawing inferences related to species abundance within communities subject to imperfect detection. To assess the performance of these models, and to compare them to related community occupancy models in situations with marginal information, we used simulation to examine the effects of mean abundan
Authors
Yuichi Yamaura, Marc Kery, Andy Royle
Prebreeding survival of Roseate Terns Sterna dougallii varies with sex, hatching order and hatching date
Unequal sex ratios can reduce the productivity of animal populations and are especially prevalent among endangered species. A cohort of 333 Roseate Tern Sterna dougallii chicks at a site where the adult sex ratio was skewed towards females was sexed at hatching and followed through fledging and return to the breeding area, and subsequently during adulthood. The entire regional metapopulation was s
Authors
Ian C. T. Nisbet, David Monticelli, Jeffrey A. Spendelow, Patricia Szczys
Network global navigation satellite system surveys to harmonize American and Canadian datum for the Lake Champlain Basin
Historically high flood levels were observed during flooding in Lake Champlain and the Richelieu River from late April through May 2011. Flooding was caused by record spring precipitation and snowmelt from the third highest cumulative snowfall year on record, which included a warm, saturated late spring snowpack. Flood stage was exceeded for a total of 67 days from April 13 to June 19, 2011. Durin
Authors
Robert H. Flynn, Paul H. Rydlund, Daniel J. Martin
A hierarchical model of daily stream temperature using air-water temperature synchronization, autocorrelation, and time lags
Water temperature is a primary driver of stream ecosystems and commonly forms the basis of stream classifications. Robust models of stream temperature are critical as the climate changes, but estimating daily stream temperature poses several important challenges. We developed a statistical model that accounts for many challenges that can make stream temperature estimation difficult. Our model iden
Authors
Benjamin H. Letcher, Daniel Hocking, Kyle O'Neil, Andrew R. Whiteley, Keith H. Nislow, Matthew O'Donnell