Earthquake Resources

Selected Publications

• • June 13, 2016

    Earthquake outlook for the San Francisco Bay region 2014–2043

    Using information from recent earthquakes, improved mapping of active faults, and a new model for estimating earthquake probabilities, the 2014 Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities updated the 30-year earthquake forecast for California. They concluded that there is a 72 percent probability (or likelihood) of at least one earthquake of magnitude 6.7 or greater striking somewhere in

    Authors

    Brad T. Aagaard, J. Luke Blair, John Boatwright, Susan H. Garcia, Ruth A. Harris, Andrew J. Michael, David P. Schwartz, Jeanne S. DiLeo

    By

    Natural Hazards Mission Area, Earthquake Hazards Program, Earthquake Science Center, San Francisco Bay and Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta Estuary
• • June 16, 2024

    Uncertainty in ground-motion-to-intensity conversions significantly affects earthquake early warning alert regions

    We examine how the choice of ground‐motion‐to‐intensity conversion equations (GMICEs) in earthquake early warning (EEW) systems affects resulting alert regions. We find that existing GMICEs can underestimate observed shaking at short rupture distances or overestimate the extent of low‐intensity shaking. Updated GMICEs that remove these biases would improve the accuracy of alert regions for the Sha

    Authors

    Jessie Saunders, Annemarie S. Baltay, Sarah E. Minson, Maren Böse

    By

    Natural Hazards Mission Area, Earthquake Hazards Program, Earthquake Science Center
  • March 28, 2024

    Performance-based earthquake early warning for tall buildings

    The ShakeAlert Earthquake Early Warning (EEW) system aims to issue an advance warning to residents on the West Coast of the United States seconds before the ground shaking arrives, if the expected ground shaking exceeds a certain threshold. However, residents in tall buildings may experience much greater motion due to the dynamic response of the buildings. Therefore, there is an ongoing effort to

    Authors

    S. Farid Ghahari, Khachik Sargsyan, Grace Alexandra Parker, Dan Swensen, Mehmet Çelebi, Hamid Haddadi, Ertugrul Taciroglu

    By

    Natural Hazards Mission Area, Earthquake Hazards Program, Earthquake Science Center
  • February 13, 2024

    Incorporating intensity distance attenuation into PLUM ground-motion-based earthquake early warning in the United States: The APPLES configuration

    We develop Attenuated ProPagation of Local Earthquake Shaking (APPLES), a new configuration for the United States West Coast version of the Propagation of Local Undamped Motion (PLUM) earthquake early warning (EEW) algorithm that incorporates attenuation into its ground-motion prediction procedures. Under APPLES, instead of using a fixed radius to forward-predict observed peak ground shaking to th

    Authors

    Jessie K. Saunders, Elizabeth S. Cochran, Julian Bunn, Annemarie S. Baltay, Sarah E. Minson, Colin T O'Rourke

    By

    Natural Hazards Mission Area, Earthquake Hazards Program, Earthquake Science Center
  • August 15, 2023

    Comparison of earthquake early warning systems and the national volcano early warning system at the U.S. Geological Survey

    IntroductionEvery year in the United States, natural hazards threaten lives and livelihoods, resulting in thousands of casualties and billions of dollars in damage. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Natural Hazards Mission Area works with many partners to monitor, assess, and research a wide range of natural hazards, including earthquakes and volcanic eruptions. These efforts aim to enhance commun

    Authors

    Aleeza Wilkins, Charlie Mandeville, John Power, Doug Given

    By

    Natural Hazards Mission Area, Earthquake Hazards Program, Volcano Hazards Program, Earthquake Science Center, Volcano Science Center