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Keith Pardieck

Keith Pardieck is the Manager of the Species Population Dynamics and Surveillance team at the Eastern Ecological Science Center at the Patuxent Research Refuge in Laurel, MD.

The Species Population Dynamics and Surveillance team have many science capabilities including performing scientific investigations and managing large-scale datasets of immediate and enduring value on species identification, occurrence, distribution, demography and population trends. As manager of this team, it includes four scientific programs: the Conservation Genetics and Genomics Program, The North American Bird Banding Laboratory, The North American Breeding Bird Survey, and the USGS Bee Lab at EESC. 

Professional Experience

  • Manager of the Species Population Dynamics and Surveillance team at the Eastern Ecological Science Center. 

Education and Certifications

  • M.S. Environmental Science, School of Public and Environmental Affairs, Indiana University, Bloomington, IN. 1995.

  • B.S. Biology, Indiana University, Bloomington, IN. 1989.

Affiliations and Memberships*

  • American Ornithological Society

Science and Products

Filter Total Items: 22

Strategic Plan for the North American Breeding Bird Survey, 2020–30

The North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) has been the cornerstone of continental bird conservation and management for hundreds of North American bird species in the United States and Canada for more than 50 years. This strategic plan was developed in collaboration with key partners and stakeholders and charts the ambitious course for the BBS over the next decade (2020–30). Using...
Authors
,
By
Ecosystems Mission Area, Eastern Ecological Science Center

Migratory behavior and winter geography drive differential range shifts of eastern birds in response to recent climate change

Over the past half century, migratory birds in North America have shown divergent population trends relative to resident species, with the former declining rapidly and the latter increasing. The role that climate change has played in these observed trends is not well understood, despite significant warming over this period. We used 43 y of monitoring data to fit dynamic species...
Authors
Clark Rushing, Andy Royle, David Ziolkowski, Keith L. Pardieck
By
Ecosystems Mission Area, Eastern Ecological Science Center

Modeling spatially and temporally complex range dynamics when detection is imperfect

Species distributions are determined by the interaction of multiple biotic and abiotic factors, which produces complex spatial and temporal patterns of occurrence. As habitats and climate change due to anthropogenic activities, there is a need to develop species distribution models that can quantify these complex range dynamics. In this paper, we develop a dynamic occupancy model that...
Authors
Clark S. Rushing, J. Andrew Royle, David Ziolkowski, Keith L. Pardieck
By
Ecosystems Mission Area, Eastern Ecological Science Center

Consistency counts: Modeling the effects of a change in protocol on Breeding Bird Survey counts

Analysis of North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) data requires controls for factors that influence detectability of birds along survey routes. Identifying factors that influence the counting process and incorporating them into analyses is a primary means of limiting bias in estimates of population change. Twedt (2015) implemented an alternative counting protocol on operational and...
Authors
John R. Sauer, William A. Link, David Ziolkowski, Keith L. Pardieck, Daniel J. Twedt
By
Ecosystems Mission Area, Eastern Ecological Science Center

North American Breeding Bird Survey in Mississippi

Does it seem like you are hearing fewer Northern Bobwhite (Colinus virginianus) calls in recent years than you remember when you were younger? Conversely, have you also noticed hearing more “cooing” of Eurasian Collared-Doves (Streptopelia decaocto)? Do such experiences reflect changes in bird populations or are they false impressions? Well, fortunately for us, we have one of the most...
Authors
Daniel J. Twedt, Keith L. Pardieck
By
Ecosystems Mission Area, Eastern Ecological Science Center

The role of the North American Breeding Bird Survey in conservation

The North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) was established in 1966 in response to a lack of quantitative data on changes in the populations of many bird species at a continental scale, especially songbirds. The BBS now provides the most reliable regional and continental trends and annual indices of abundance available for >500 bird species. This paper reviews some of the ways in which...
Authors
Marie-Anne R. Hudson, Charles M. Francis, Kate J. Campbell, Constance M. Downes, Adam C. Smith, Keith L. Pardieck
By
Ecosystems Mission Area, Eastern Ecological Science Center

How well do route survey areas represent landscapes at larger spatial extents? An analysis of land cover composition along Breeding Bird Survey routes

The occurrence of birds in a survey unit is partly determined by the habitat present. Moreover, some bird species preferentially avoid some land cover types and are attracted to others. As such, land cover composition within the 400 m survey areas along a Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) route clearly influences the species available to be detected. Ideally, to extend survey results to the...
Authors
Joseph A. Veech, Keith L. Pardieck, David Ziolkowski
By
Ecosystems Mission Area, Eastern Ecological Science Center

The first 50 years of the North American Breeding Bird Survey

The vision of Chandler (Chan) S. Robbins for a continental-scale omnibus survey of breeding birds led to the development of the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS). Chan was uniquely suited to develop the BBS. His position as a government scientist had given him experience with designing and implementing continental-scale surveys, his research background made him an effective...
Authors
John R. Sauer, David Ziolkowski, Keith L. Pardieck, Adam C. Smith, Marie-Anne R. Hudson, Vicente Rodriguez, Humberto Berlanga, Daniel Niven, William A. Link
By
Ecosystems Mission Area, Eastern Ecological Science Center

Expanding the North American Breeding Bird Survey analysis to include additional species and regions

The North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) contains data for >700 bird species, but analyses often focus on a core group of ∼420 species. We analyzed data for 122 species of North American birds for which data exist in the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) database but are not routinely analyzed on the BBS Summary and Analysis Website. Many of these species occur in the...
Authors
John R. Sauer, Daniel Niven, Keith L. Pardieck, David Ziolkowski, William A. Link
By
Ecosystems Mission Area, Eastern Ecological Science Center

An integrated population model for bird monitoring in North America

Integrated population models (IPMs) provide a unified framework for simultaneously analyzing data sets of different types to estimate vital rates, population size, and dynamics; assess contributions of demographic parameters to population changes; and assess population viability. Strengths of an IPM include the ability to estimate latent parameters and improve the precision of parameter...
Authors
Farshid S. Ahrestani, James F. Saracco, John R. Sauer, Keith L. Pardieck, J. Andrew Royle
By
Ecosystems Mission Area, Eastern Ecological Science Center

Estimating indices of range shifts in birds using dynamic models when detection is imperfect

There is intense interest in basic and applied ecology about the effect of global change on current and future species distributions. Projections based on widely used static modeling methods implicitly assume that species are in equilibrium with the environment and that detection during surveys is perfect. We used multiseason correlated detection occupancy models, which avoid these...
Authors
Matthew J. Clement, James E. Hines, James D. Nichols, Keith L. Pardieck, David J. Ziolkowski
By
Ecosystems Mission Area, Eastern Ecological Science Center

The North American Breeding Bird Survey 1966–2011: Summary analysis and species accounts

The North American Breeding Bird Survey is a roadside, count-based survey conducted by volunteer observers. Begun in 1966, it now is a primary source of information on spatial and temporal patterns of population change for North American birds. We analyze population change for states, provinces, Bird Conservation Regions, and the entire survey within the contiguous United States and...
Authors
John R. Sauer, William A. Link, Jane E. Fallon, Keith L. Pardieck, David J. Ziolkowski
By
Ecosystems Mission Area, Eastern Ecological Science Center
link
Net change in occupancy probability for CARW 1972-2012

Spatio-Temporal Statistical Models for Forecasting Climate Change Effects on Bird Distribution

Ecological indicators of climate change are needed to measure concurrent changes in ecological systems, inform management decisions, and forecast the consequences of climate change. We seek to develop robust bird-based, climate-change indicators using North American Breeding Bird Survey data.
By
Ecosystems Mission Area, Eastern Ecological Science Center
link

Spatio-Temporal Statistical Models for Forecasting Climate Change Effects on Bird Distribution

Ecological indicators of climate change are needed to measure concurrent changes in ecological systems, inform management decisions, and forecast the consequences of climate change. We seek to develop robust bird-based, climate-change indicators using North American Breeding Bird Survey data.
Learn More
link
Shrike BBS Trend Map

Comprehensive 1966 - 2017 Results! North American Breeding Bird Survey

The North American Breeding Bird Survey program (BBS) provides critical science-based population data for more than 400 bird species to improve our understanding of how these federally entrusted species respond to environmental variability and ecosystem change. The BBS generates results that inform Federal wildlife managers in the Fish and Wildlife Service, the National Park Service, Department of...
By
Ecosystems Mission Area, Species Management Research Program, Eastern Ecological Science Center
link

Comprehensive 1966 - 2017 Results! North American Breeding Bird Survey

The North American Breeding Bird Survey program (BBS) provides critical science-based population data for more than 400 bird species to improve our understanding of how these federally entrusted species respond to environmental variability and ecosystem change. The BBS generates results that inform Federal wildlife managers in the Fish and Wildlife Service, the National Park Service, Department of...
Learn More
link
BBS Routes across North America

The North American Breeding Bird Survey: Refining Scale to Provide New Insights

The Challenge: Since 1966, the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) has filled a vital role in identifying at-risk bird species for Federal, State, and private entities. The BBS is a scientifically rigorous population count performed by a highly skilled, largely volunteer work force of nearly 2,500 observers. Every year these observers visit most of the survey’s 4,500 routes, which consist of...
By
Ecosystems Mission Area, Species Management Research Program, Eastern Ecological Science Center
link

The North American Breeding Bird Survey: Refining Scale to Provide New Insights

The Challenge: Since 1966, the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) has filled a vital role in identifying at-risk bird species for Federal, State, and private entities. The BBS is a scientifically rigorous population count performed by a highly skilled, largely volunteer work force of nearly 2,500 observers. Every year these observers visit most of the survey’s 4,500 routes, which consist of...
Learn More
link
Northern waterthrush

Avian Indicators of Climate Change Based on the North American Breeding Bird Survey

Appropriate ecological indicators of climate change can be used to measure concurrent changes in ecological systems, inform management decisions, and potentially to project the consequences of climate change. However, many of the available indicators for North American birds do not account for imperfect observation. We proposed to use correlated-detection occupancy models to develop...
By
Climate Adaptation Science Centers
link

Avian Indicators of Climate Change Based on the North American Breeding Bird Survey

Appropriate ecological indicators of climate change can be used to measure concurrent changes in ecological systems, inform management decisions, and potentially to project the consequences of climate change. However, many of the available indicators for North American birds do not account for imperfect observation. We proposed to use correlated-detection occupancy models to develop indicators fro
Learn More

North American Breeding Bird Survey Dataset 1966 - 2019, version 2019.0

The 1966-2018 North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) dataset contains avian point count data for more than 700 North American bird taxa (species, races, and unidentified species groupings). These data are collected annually during the breeding season, primarily in June, along thousands of randomly established roadside survey routes in the United States and Canada. Routes are roughly...
By
Species Management Research Program, Eastern Ecological Science Center

North American Breeding Bird Survey Dataset 1966 - 2018, version 2018.0

The 1966-2018 North American Breeding Bird Survey dataset contains avian point count data for more than 700 North American bird taxa (primarily species, but also some races and unidentified species groupings). These data are collected annually during the breeding season, primarily June and May, along thousands of randomly established roadside survey routes in the United States and Canada...
By
Species Management Research Program, Eastern Ecological Science Center

North American Breeding Bird Survey Dataset 1966 - 2017, version 2017.0

The 1966-2017 North American Breeding Bird Survey dataset contains avian point count data for more than 700 North American bird taxa (primarily species, but also some races and unidentified species groupings). These data are collected annually during the breeding season, primarily June and May, along thousands of randomly established roadside survey routes in the United States and Canada...
By
Eastern Ecological Science Center

North American Breeding Bird Survey Dataset 1966 - 2016, version 2016.0

The 1966-2016 North American Breeding Bird Survey dataset contains avian point count data for more than 700 North American bird taxa (primarily species, but also some races and unidentified species groupings). These data are collected annually during the breeding season, primarily June and May, along thousands of randomly established roadside survey routes in the United States and Canada...
By
Species Management Research Program, Eastern Ecological Science Center

North American Breeding Bird Survey Results and Analysis

This website provides visualizations of population change for North American birds using data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS). The BBS is analyzed for a "core" area (contiguous United States and southern Canada, results available from 1966-present), and for an "expanded" survey area (including portions of Alaska and northern Canada with results from 1993-present).
By
Eastern Ecological Science Center

Science and Products

Filter Total Items: 22

Strategic Plan for the North American Breeding Bird Survey, 2020–30

The North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) has been the cornerstone of continental bird conservation and management for hundreds of North American bird species in the United States and Canada for more than 50 years. This strategic plan was developed in collaboration with key partners and stakeholders and charts the ambitious course for the BBS over the next decade (2020–30). Using...
Authors
,
By
Ecosystems Mission Area, Eastern Ecological Science Center

Migratory behavior and winter geography drive differential range shifts of eastern birds in response to recent climate change

Over the past half century, migratory birds in North America have shown divergent population trends relative to resident species, with the former declining rapidly and the latter increasing. The role that climate change has played in these observed trends is not well understood, despite significant warming over this period. We used 43 y of monitoring data to fit dynamic species...
Authors
Clark Rushing, Andy Royle, David Ziolkowski, Keith L. Pardieck
By
Ecosystems Mission Area, Eastern Ecological Science Center

Modeling spatially and temporally complex range dynamics when detection is imperfect

Species distributions are determined by the interaction of multiple biotic and abiotic factors, which produces complex spatial and temporal patterns of occurrence. As habitats and climate change due to anthropogenic activities, there is a need to develop species distribution models that can quantify these complex range dynamics. In this paper, we develop a dynamic occupancy model that...
Authors
Clark S. Rushing, J. Andrew Royle, David Ziolkowski, Keith L. Pardieck
By
Ecosystems Mission Area, Eastern Ecological Science Center

Consistency counts: Modeling the effects of a change in protocol on Breeding Bird Survey counts

Analysis of North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) data requires controls for factors that influence detectability of birds along survey routes. Identifying factors that influence the counting process and incorporating them into analyses is a primary means of limiting bias in estimates of population change. Twedt (2015) implemented an alternative counting protocol on operational and...
Authors
John R. Sauer, William A. Link, David Ziolkowski, Keith L. Pardieck, Daniel J. Twedt
By
Ecosystems Mission Area, Eastern Ecological Science Center

North American Breeding Bird Survey in Mississippi

Does it seem like you are hearing fewer Northern Bobwhite (Colinus virginianus) calls in recent years than you remember when you were younger? Conversely, have you also noticed hearing more “cooing” of Eurasian Collared-Doves (Streptopelia decaocto)? Do such experiences reflect changes in bird populations or are they false impressions? Well, fortunately for us, we have one of the most...
Authors
Daniel J. Twedt, Keith L. Pardieck
By
Ecosystems Mission Area, Eastern Ecological Science Center

The role of the North American Breeding Bird Survey in conservation

The North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) was established in 1966 in response to a lack of quantitative data on changes in the populations of many bird species at a continental scale, especially songbirds. The BBS now provides the most reliable regional and continental trends and annual indices of abundance available for >500 bird species. This paper reviews some of the ways in which...
Authors
Marie-Anne R. Hudson, Charles M. Francis, Kate J. Campbell, Constance M. Downes, Adam C. Smith, Keith L. Pardieck
By
Ecosystems Mission Area, Eastern Ecological Science Center

How well do route survey areas represent landscapes at larger spatial extents? An analysis of land cover composition along Breeding Bird Survey routes

The occurrence of birds in a survey unit is partly determined by the habitat present. Moreover, some bird species preferentially avoid some land cover types and are attracted to others. As such, land cover composition within the 400 m survey areas along a Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) route clearly influences the species available to be detected. Ideally, to extend survey results to the...
Authors
Joseph A. Veech, Keith L. Pardieck, David Ziolkowski
By
Ecosystems Mission Area, Eastern Ecological Science Center

The first 50 years of the North American Breeding Bird Survey

The vision of Chandler (Chan) S. Robbins for a continental-scale omnibus survey of breeding birds led to the development of the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS). Chan was uniquely suited to develop the BBS. His position as a government scientist had given him experience with designing and implementing continental-scale surveys, his research background made him an effective...
Authors
John R. Sauer, David Ziolkowski, Keith L. Pardieck, Adam C. Smith, Marie-Anne R. Hudson, Vicente Rodriguez, Humberto Berlanga, Daniel Niven, William A. Link
By
Ecosystems Mission Area, Eastern Ecological Science Center

Expanding the North American Breeding Bird Survey analysis to include additional species and regions

The North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) contains data for >700 bird species, but analyses often focus on a core group of ∼420 species. We analyzed data for 122 species of North American birds for which data exist in the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) database but are not routinely analyzed on the BBS Summary and Analysis Website. Many of these species occur in the...
Authors
John R. Sauer, Daniel Niven, Keith L. Pardieck, David Ziolkowski, William A. Link
By
Ecosystems Mission Area, Eastern Ecological Science Center

An integrated population model for bird monitoring in North America

Integrated population models (IPMs) provide a unified framework for simultaneously analyzing data sets of different types to estimate vital rates, population size, and dynamics; assess contributions of demographic parameters to population changes; and assess population viability. Strengths of an IPM include the ability to estimate latent parameters and improve the precision of parameter...
Authors
Farshid S. Ahrestani, James F. Saracco, John R. Sauer, Keith L. Pardieck, J. Andrew Royle
By
Ecosystems Mission Area, Eastern Ecological Science Center

Estimating indices of range shifts in birds using dynamic models when detection is imperfect

There is intense interest in basic and applied ecology about the effect of global change on current and future species distributions. Projections based on widely used static modeling methods implicitly assume that species are in equilibrium with the environment and that detection during surveys is perfect. We used multiseason correlated detection occupancy models, which avoid these...
Authors
Matthew J. Clement, James E. Hines, James D. Nichols, Keith L. Pardieck, David J. Ziolkowski
By
Ecosystems Mission Area, Eastern Ecological Science Center

The North American Breeding Bird Survey 1966–2011: Summary analysis and species accounts

The North American Breeding Bird Survey is a roadside, count-based survey conducted by volunteer observers. Begun in 1966, it now is a primary source of information on spatial and temporal patterns of population change for North American birds. We analyze population change for states, provinces, Bird Conservation Regions, and the entire survey within the contiguous United States and...
Authors
John R. Sauer, William A. Link, Jane E. Fallon, Keith L. Pardieck, David J. Ziolkowski
By
Ecosystems Mission Area, Eastern Ecological Science Center
link
Net change in occupancy probability for CARW 1972-2012

Spatio-Temporal Statistical Models for Forecasting Climate Change Effects on Bird Distribution

Ecological indicators of climate change are needed to measure concurrent changes in ecological systems, inform management decisions, and forecast the consequences of climate change. We seek to develop robust bird-based, climate-change indicators using North American Breeding Bird Survey data.
By
Ecosystems Mission Area, Eastern Ecological Science Center
link

Spatio-Temporal Statistical Models for Forecasting Climate Change Effects on Bird Distribution

Ecological indicators of climate change are needed to measure concurrent changes in ecological systems, inform management decisions, and forecast the consequences of climate change. We seek to develop robust bird-based, climate-change indicators using North American Breeding Bird Survey data.
Learn More
link
Shrike BBS Trend Map

Comprehensive 1966 - 2017 Results! North American Breeding Bird Survey

The North American Breeding Bird Survey program (BBS) provides critical science-based population data for more than 400 bird species to improve our understanding of how these federally entrusted species respond to environmental variability and ecosystem change. The BBS generates results that inform Federal wildlife managers in the Fish and Wildlife Service, the National Park Service, Department of...
By
Ecosystems Mission Area, Species Management Research Program, Eastern Ecological Science Center
link

Comprehensive 1966 - 2017 Results! North American Breeding Bird Survey

The North American Breeding Bird Survey program (BBS) provides critical science-based population data for more than 400 bird species to improve our understanding of how these federally entrusted species respond to environmental variability and ecosystem change. The BBS generates results that inform Federal wildlife managers in the Fish and Wildlife Service, the National Park Service, Department of...
Learn More
link
BBS Routes across North America

The North American Breeding Bird Survey: Refining Scale to Provide New Insights

The Challenge: Since 1966, the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) has filled a vital role in identifying at-risk bird species for Federal, State, and private entities. The BBS is a scientifically rigorous population count performed by a highly skilled, largely volunteer work force of nearly 2,500 observers. Every year these observers visit most of the survey’s 4,500 routes, which consist of...
By
Ecosystems Mission Area, Species Management Research Program, Eastern Ecological Science Center
link

The North American Breeding Bird Survey: Refining Scale to Provide New Insights

The Challenge: Since 1966, the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) has filled a vital role in identifying at-risk bird species for Federal, State, and private entities. The BBS is a scientifically rigorous population count performed by a highly skilled, largely volunteer work force of nearly 2,500 observers. Every year these observers visit most of the survey’s 4,500 routes, which consist of...
Learn More
link
Northern waterthrush

Avian Indicators of Climate Change Based on the North American Breeding Bird Survey

Appropriate ecological indicators of climate change can be used to measure concurrent changes in ecological systems, inform management decisions, and potentially to project the consequences of climate change. However, many of the available indicators for North American birds do not account for imperfect observation. We proposed to use correlated-detection occupancy models to develop...
By
Climate Adaptation Science Centers
link

Avian Indicators of Climate Change Based on the North American Breeding Bird Survey

Appropriate ecological indicators of climate change can be used to measure concurrent changes in ecological systems, inform management decisions, and potentially to project the consequences of climate change. However, many of the available indicators for North American birds do not account for imperfect observation. We proposed to use correlated-detection occupancy models to develop indicators fro
Learn More

North American Breeding Bird Survey Dataset 1966 - 2019, version 2019.0

The 1966-2018 North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) dataset contains avian point count data for more than 700 North American bird taxa (species, races, and unidentified species groupings). These data are collected annually during the breeding season, primarily in June, along thousands of randomly established roadside survey routes in the United States and Canada. Routes are roughly...
By
Species Management Research Program, Eastern Ecological Science Center

North American Breeding Bird Survey Dataset 1966 - 2018, version 2018.0

The 1966-2018 North American Breeding Bird Survey dataset contains avian point count data for more than 700 North American bird taxa (primarily species, but also some races and unidentified species groupings). These data are collected annually during the breeding season, primarily June and May, along thousands of randomly established roadside survey routes in the United States and Canada...
By
Species Management Research Program, Eastern Ecological Science Center

North American Breeding Bird Survey Dataset 1966 - 2017, version 2017.0

The 1966-2017 North American Breeding Bird Survey dataset contains avian point count data for more than 700 North American bird taxa (primarily species, but also some races and unidentified species groupings). These data are collected annually during the breeding season, primarily June and May, along thousands of randomly established roadside survey routes in the United States and Canada...
By
Eastern Ecological Science Center

North American Breeding Bird Survey Dataset 1966 - 2016, version 2016.0

The 1966-2016 North American Breeding Bird Survey dataset contains avian point count data for more than 700 North American bird taxa (primarily species, but also some races and unidentified species groupings). These data are collected annually during the breeding season, primarily June and May, along thousands of randomly established roadside survey routes in the United States and Canada...
By
Species Management Research Program, Eastern Ecological Science Center

North American Breeding Bird Survey Results and Analysis

This website provides visualizations of population change for North American birds using data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS). The BBS is analyzed for a "core" area (contiguous United States and southern Canada, results available from 1966-present), and for an "expanded" survey area (including portions of Alaska and northern Canada with results from 1993-present).
By
Eastern Ecological Science Center

*Disclaimer: Listing outside positions with professional scientific organizations on this Staff Profile are for informational purposes only and do not constitute an endorsement of those professional scientific organizations or their activities by the USGS, Department of the Interior, or U.S. Government

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