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Overview of the ARkStorm scenario

The U.S. Geological Survey, Multi Hazards Demonstration Project (MHDP) uses hazards science to improve resiliency of communities to natural disasters including earthquakes, tsunamis, wildfires, landslides, floods and coastal erosion. The project engages emergency planners, businesses, universities, government agencies, and others in preparing for major natural disasters. The project also helps to

Authors
Keith Porter, Anne Wein, Charles N. Alpers, Allan Baez, Patrick L. Barnard, James Carter, Alessandra Corsi, James Costner, Dale Cox, Tapash Das, Mike Dettinger, James Done, Charles Eadie, Marcia Eymann, Justin Ferris, Prasad Gunturi, Mimi Hughes, Robert Jarrett, Laurie Johnson, Hanh Dam Le-Griffin, David Mitchell, Suzette Morman, Paul Neiman, Anna Olsen, Suzanne Perry, Geoffrey Plumlee, Martin Ralph, David Reynolds, Adam Rose, Kathleen Schaefer, Julie Serakos, William Siembieda, Jonathan D. Stock, David Strong, Ian Sue Wing, Alex Tang, Pete Thomas, Ken Topping, Chris Wills, Lucile Jones

Cyclic spattering, seismic tremor, and surface fluctuation within a perched lava channel, Kilauea Volcano

In late 2007, a perched lava channel, built up to 45 m above the preexisting surface, developed during the ongoing eruption near Pu‘u ‘Ō‘ō cone on Kīlauea Volcano’s east rift zone. The lava channel was segmented into four pools extending over a total of 1.4 km. From late October to mid-December, a cyclic behavior, consisting of steady lava level rise terminated by vigorous spattering and an abrupt
Authors
Matthew R. Patrick, Tim R. Orr, David C. Wilson, David C. Dow, R. Freeman

Developing empirical collapse fragility functions for global building types

Building collapse is the dominant cause of casualties during earthquakes. In order to better predict human fatalities, the U.S. Geological Survey’s Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) program requires collapse fragility functions for global building types. The collapse fragility is expressed as the probability of collapse at discrete levels of the input hazard defined in t
Authors
K. Jaiswal, D. Wald, D. D'Ayala

Earthquake casualty models within the USGS Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) system

Since the launch of the USGS’s Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) system in fall of 2007, the time needed for the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) to determine and comprehend the scope of any major earthquake disaster anywhere in the world has been dramatically reduced to less than 30 min. PAGER alerts consist of estimated shaking hazard from the ShakeMap system, estimates o
Authors
Kishor Jaiswal, David J. Wald, Paul S. Earle, Keith A. Porter, Mike Hearne

Earthquake impact scale

With the advent of the USGS prompt assessment of global earthquakes for response (PAGER) system, which rapidly assesses earthquake impacts, U.S. and international earthquake responders are reconsidering their automatic alert and activation levels and response procedures. To help facilitate rapid and appropriate earthquake response, an Earthquake Impact Scale (EIS) is proposed on the basis of two c
Authors
David J. Wald, K. S. Jaiswal, K. D. Marano, D. Bausch

Positive feedback and momentum growth during debris-flow entrainment of wet bed sediment

Debris flows typically occur when intense rainfall or snowmelt triggers landslides or extensive erosion on steep, debris-mantled slopes. The flows can then grow dramatically in size and speed as they entrain material from their beds and banks, but the mechanism of this growth is unclear. Indeed, momentum conservation implies that entrainment of static material should retard the motion of the flows
Authors
Richard M. Iverson, Mark E. Reid, Matthew Logan, Richard G. Lahusen, Jonathan W. Godt, Julia P. Griswold

USGS 1-min Dst index

We produce a 1-min time resolution storm-time disturbance index, the USGS Dst, called Dst8507-4SM. This index is based on minute resolution horizontal magnetic field intensity from low-latitude observatories in Honolulu, Kakioka, San Juan and Hermanus, for the years 1985–2007. The method used to produce the index uses a combination of time- and frequency-domain techniques, which more clearly ident
Authors
J.L. Gannon, Jeffrey J. Love

Combined effects of tectonic and landslide-generated Tsunami Runup at Seward, Alaska during the Mw 9.2 1964 earthquake

We apply a recently developed and validated numerical model of tsunami propagation and runup to study the inundation of Resurrection Bay and the town of Seward by the 1964 Alaska tsunami. Seward was hit by both tectonic and landslide-generated tsunami waves during the MWMW 9.2 1964 megathrust earthquake. The earthquake triggered a series of submarine mass failures around the fjord, which resulted
Authors
E. Suleimani, D.J. Nicolsky, Peter J. Haeussler, R. Hansen

Evaluation of TRIGRS (transient rainfall infiltration and grid-based regional slope-stability analysis)'s predictive skill for hurricane-triggered landslides: A case study in Macon County, North Carolina

The key to advancing the predictability of rainfall-triggered landslides is to use physically based slope-stability models that simulate the transient dynamical response of the subsurface moisture to spatiotemporal variability of rainfall in complex terrains. TRIGRS (transient rainfall infiltration and grid-based regional slope-stability analysis) is a USGS landslide prediction model, coded in For
Authors
Z. Liao, Y. Hong, D. Kirschbaum, R.F. Adler, J.J. Gourley, R. Wooten

Secular trends in storm-level geomagnetic activity

Analysis is made of K-index data from groups of ground-based geomagnetic observatories in Germany, Britain, and Australia, 1868.0–2009.0, solar cycles 11–23. Methods include nonparametric measures of trends and statistical significance used by the hydrological and climatological research communities. Among the three observatory groups, German K data systematically record the highest disturbance le
Authors
J.J. Love

The USGS geomagnetism program and its role in space weather monitoring

Magnetic storms result from the dynamic interaction of the solar wind with the coupled magnetospheric-ionospheric system. Large storms represent a potential hazard for the activities and infrastructure of a modern, technologically based society [Baker et al., 2008]; they can cause the loss of radio communications, reduce the accuracy of global positioning systems, damage satellite electronics and
Authors
Jeffrey J. Love, Carol A. Finn

Seismic and geodetic signatures of fault slip at the Slumgullion Landslide Natural Laboratory

We tested the hypothesis that the Slumgullion landslide is a useful natural laboratory for observing fault slip, specifically that slip along its basal surface and side-bounding strike-slip faults occurs with comparable richness of aseismic and seismic modes as along crustal- and plate-scale boundaries. Our study provides new constraints on models governing landslide motion. We monitored landslide
Authors
J. Gomberg, W. Schulz, P. Bodin, J. Kean