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Geochemical constraints on possible subduction components in lavas of Mayon and Taal Volcanoes, Southern Luzon, Philippines

Mayon is the most active volcano along the east margin of southern Luzon, Philippines. Petrographic and major element data indicate that Mayon has produced a basaltic to andesitic lava series by fractional crystallization and magma mixing. Trace element data indicate that the parental basalts came from a heterogeneous mantle source. The unmodified composition of the mantle wedge is similar to that
Authors
P.R. Castillo, C. G. Newhall

Prediction of nonlinear soil effects

Mathematical models of soil nonlinearity in common use and recently developed nonlinear codes compared to investigate the range of their predictions. We consider equivalent linear formulations with and without frequency-dependent moduli and damping ratios and nonlinear formulations for total and effective stress. Average velocity profiles to 150 m depth with midrange National Earthquake Hazards Re
Authors
S. Hartzell, L.F. Bonilla, R. A. Williams

Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis for Sumatra, Indonesia and across the Southern Malaysian Peninsula

The ground motion hazard for Sumatra and the Malaysian peninsula is calculated in a probabilistic framework, using procedures developed for the US National Seismic Hazard Maps. We constructed regional earthquake source models and used standard published and modified attenuation equations to calculate peak ground acceleration at 2% and 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years for rock site conditi
Authors
M.D. Petersen, J. Dewey, S. Hartzell, C. Mueller, S. Harmsen, A. D. Frankel, K. Rukstales

Quantifying probabilities of volcanic events: The example of volcanic hazard at Mount Vesuvius

We describe an event tree scheme to quantitatively estimate both long- and short-term volcanic hazard. The procedure is based on a Bayesian approach that produces a probability estimation of any possible event in which we are interested and can make use of all available information including theoretical models, historical and geological data, and monitoring observations. The main steps in the proc
Authors
W. Marzocchi, L. Sandri, P. Gasparini, C. Newhall, Enzo Boschi

Surface rupture on the Denali fault interpreted from tree damage during the 1912 Delta River Mw 7.2–7.4 earthquake: Implications for the 2002 Denali fault earthquake slip distribution

During the 3 November 2002 Denali fault earthquake, surface rupture propagated through a small, old-growth forest in the Delta River valley and damaged many trees growing on the fault. Damage was principally the result of fault offset of tree roots and tilting of trees. Some trees were split by surface faults that intersected the base of their trunks or large taproots. A few trees appear to have b
Authors
G. Carver, G. Plafker, M. Metz, L. Cluff, B. Slemmons, E. Johnson, J. Roddick, S. Sorensen

Application of near real-time radial semblance to locate the shallow magmatic conduit at Kilauea Volcano, Hawaii

Radial Semblance is applied to broadband seismic network data to provide source locations of Very-Long-Period (VLP) seismic energy in near real time. With an efficient algorithm and adequate network coverage, accurate source locations of VLP energy are derived to quickly locate the shallow magmatic conduit system at Kilauea Volcano, Hawaii. During a restart in magma flow following a brief pause in
Authors
P. Dawson, D. Whilldin, B. Chouet

Inverse kinematic and forward dynamic models of the 2002 Denali fault earthquake, Alaska

We perform inverse kinematic and forward dynamic models of the M 7.9 2002 Denali fault, Alaska, earthquake to shed light on the rupture process and dynamics of this event, which took place on a geometrically complex fault system in central Alaska. We use a combination of local seismic and Global Positioning System (GPS) data for our kinematic inversion and find that the slip distribution of this e
Authors
D. D. Oglesby, Douglas S. Dreger, R. A. Harris, N. Ratchkovski, R. Hansen

Radiated energy and the rupture process of the Denali fault earthquake sequence of 2002 from broadband teleseismic body waves

Displacement, velocity, and velocity-squared records of P and SH body waves recorded at teleseismic distances are analyzed to determine the rupture characteristics of the Denali fault, Alaska, earthquake of 3 November 2002 (MW 7.9, Me 8.1). Three episodes of rupture can be identified from broadband (∼0.1–5.0 Hz) waveforms. The Denali fault earthquake started as a  MW 7.3 thrust event. Subsequent r
Authors
G. L. Choy, J. Boatwright

Rupture process of the M 7.9 Denali fault, Alaska, earthquake: Subevents, directivity, and scaling of high-frequency ground motions

Displacement waveforms and high-frequency acceleration envelopes from stations at distances of 3-300 km were inverted to determine the source process of the M 7.9 Denali fault earthquake. Fitting the initial portion of the displacement waveforms indicates that the earthquake started with an oblique thrust subevent (subevent # 1) with an east-west-striking, north-dipping nodal plane consistent with
Authors
A. Frankel

Depth to the Juan de Fuca slab beneath the Cascadia subduction margin– A 3-D model for sorting earthquakes

We present an updated model of the Juan de Fuca slab beneath southern British Columbia, Washington, Oregon, and northern California, and use this model to separate earthquakes occurring above and below the slab surface. The model is based on depth contours previously published by Fluck and others (1997). Our model attempts to rectify a number of shortcomings in the original model and update it wit
Authors
Patricia A. McCrory, J. Luke Blair, David H. Oppenheimer, Stephen R. Walter

Emergency assessment of debris-flow hazards from basins burned by the Cedar and Paradise Fires of 2003, southern California

These maps present preliminary assessments of the probability of debris-flow activity and estimates of peak discharges that can potentially be generated by debris flows issuing from basins burned by the Cedar and Paradise Fires of October 2003 in southern California in response to 25-year, 10-year, and 2-year recurrence, 1-hour duration rain storms. The probability maps are based on the applicatio
Authors
Susan H. Cannon, Joseph E. Gartner, Michael G. Rupert, John A. Michael