Skip to main content
U.S. flag

An official website of the United States government

Publications

Filter Total Items: 7220

DisasterNet: Causal Bayesian networks with normalizing flows for cascading hazards

Sudden-onset hazards like earthquakes often induce cascading secondary hazards (e.g., landslides, liquefaction, debris flows, etc.) and subsequent impacts (e.g., building and infrastructure damage) that cause catastrophic human and economic losses. Rapid and accurate estimates of these hazards and impacts are critical for timely and effective post-disaster responses. Emerging remote sensing techni
Authors
Xuechun Li, Paula Madeline Burgi, Wei Ma, Haeyoung Noh, David J. Wald, Susu Xu

Scaling microseismic cloud shape during hydraulic stimulation using in-situ stress and permeability

Forecasting microseismic cloud shape as a proxy of stimulated rock volume may improve the design of an energy extraction system. The microseismic cloud created during hydraulic stimulation of geothermal reservoirs is known empirically to extend in the general direction of the maximum principal stress. However, this empirical relationship is often inconsistent with reported results, and the cloud g
Authors
Y. Mukuhira, M. Yang, T. Ishibashi, K. Okamoto, H. Moriya, Y. Kumano, H. Asanuma, S.A. Shapiro, Justin Rubinstein, T. Ito, K. Yan, Y. Zuo

The 2018 eruption of Kīlauea: Insights, puzzles, and opportunities for volcano science

The science of volcanology advances disproportionately during exceptionally large or well-observed eruptions. The 2018 eruption of Kīlauea Volcano (Hawai‘i) was its most impactful in centuries, involving an outpouring of more than one cubic kilometer of basalt, a magnitude 7 flank earthquake, and the volcano’s largest summit collapse since at least the nineteenth century. Eruptive activity was doc
Authors
Kyle R. Anderson, Tom Shea, Kendra J. Lynn, Emily Montgomery-Brown, Donald A. Swanson, Matthew R. Patrick, Brian Shiro, Christina A. Neal

Converted-wave reverse time migration imaging in subduction zone settings

We use a newly developed 2-D elastic reverse time migration (RTM) imaging algorithm based on the Helmholtz decomposition to test approaches for imaging the descending slab in subduction zone regions using local earthquake sources. Our elastic RTM method is designed to reconstruct incident and scattered wavefields at depth, isolate constituent P- and S-wave components via Helmholtz decomposition, a
Authors
Leah Langer, Fred Pollitz, Jeffrey McGuire

Towards improved code-based performance objectives for liquefaction hazard analysis

Ground failure due to liquefaction in loose sand deposits poses substantial risks to the built environment, and has caused significant damage in past earthquakes to a wide range of infrastructure. Advances in liquefaction hazard analysis in practice have largely stagnated in recent years; the state of practice remains rooted in simplified procedures that ignore considerable uncertainties in liquef
Authors
Andrew James Makdisi, Steven L. Kramer

Comparison of co-recorded analog and digital systems for characterization of responses and uncertainties

One of the most prominent challenges related to legacy seismic data is determining how these data can be appropriately used in modern research applications. The wide variety of instrumentation used in the analog era, the format of recording on paper wrapped around a helicorder drum, and limited metadata information introduces ambiguities that are not typical of modern digital data. Therefore, tech
Authors
Thomas A. Lee, Adam T. Ringler, Robert E. Anthony, Miaki Ishii

The relation between decadal droughts and eruptions of Steamboat Geyser in Yellowstone National Park, USA

In the past century, most eruptions of Steamboat Geyser in Yellowstone National Park's Norris Geyser Basin were mainly clustered in three episodes: 1961–1969, 1982–1984, and ongoing since 2018. These eruptive episodes resulted in extensive disturbance to surrounding trees. To characterize tree response over time as an indicator of geyser activity adjustments to climate variability, aerial and grou
Authors
Shaul Hurwitz, John C. King, Gregory T. Pederson, Mara H. Reed, Lauren N Harrison, Jefferson Hungerford, R. Greg Vaughan, Michael Manga

Accuracy of finite fault slip estimates in subduction zone regions with topographic Green's functions and seafloor geodesy

Until recently, the lack of seafloor geodetic instrumentation and the use of unrealistically simple, half-space based forward models have resulted in poor resolution of near-trench slip in subduction zone settings. Here, we use a synthetic framework to investigate the impact of topography and geodetic data distribution on coseismic slip estimates in various subduction zone settings. We calculate s
Authors
Leah Langer, Théa Ragon

Alerting the globe of consequential earthquakes

The primary ingredients on the hazard side of the equation include the rapid characterization of the earthquake source and quantifying the spatial distribution of the shaking, plus any secondary hazards an earthquake may have triggered. On the earthquake impact side, loss calculations require the aforementioned hazard assessments—and their uncertainties—as input, plus the quantification of the exp
Authors
David J. Wald

Distribution of large boulders on the deposit of the West Salt Creek rock avalanche, western Colorado

On May 25, 2014, a 54.5-million cubic meter rock avalanche in the West Salt Creek valley, Mesa County, Colorado, traveled 4.6 kilometers, leaving a deposit that covers about 2.2 square kilometers. To check the particle-size distribution of the deposit for information about the high mobility of the avalanche, we estimated boulder distribution density for the entire deposit by counting 1-meter (m) o
Authors
Adrian C. Lewis, Rex L. Baum, Jeffrey A. Coe

Debris-flow process controls on steepland morphology in the San Gabriel Mountains, California

Steep landscapes evolve largely by debris flows, in addition to fluvial and hillslope processes. Abundant field observations document that debris flows incise valley bottoms and transport substantial sediment volumes, yet their contributions to steepland morphology remain uncertain. This has, in turn, limited the development of debris-flow incision rate formulations that produce morphology consist
Authors
William Struble, Luke A. McGuire, Scott W. McCoy, Katherine R. Barnhart, Odin Marc

Slip deficit rates on southern Cascadia faults resolved with viscoelastic earthquake cycle modeling of geodetic deformation

The fore‐arc of the southern Cascadia subduction zone (CSZ), north of the Mendocino triple junction (MTJ), is home to a network of Quaternary‐active crustal faults that accumulate strain due to the interaction of the North American, Juan de Fuca (Gorda), and Pacific plates. These faults, including the Little Salmon and Mad River fault (LSF and MRF) zones, are located near the most populated parts
Authors
Kathryn Zerbe Materna, Jessica R. Murray, Fred Pollitz, Jason R. Patton