Publications
Publications, scientific literature, and information products from the Land Change Science Program.
Filter Total Items: 562
Permafrost collapse is accelerating carbon release
This much is clear: the Arctic is warming fast, and frozen soils are starting to thaw, often for the first time in thousands of years. But how this happens is as murky as the mud that oozes from permafrost when ice melts.As the temperature of the ground rises above freezing, microorganisms break down organic matter in the soil. Greenhouse gases — including carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide
Authors
Merritt R. Turetsky, Benjamin W. Abbott, Miriam Jones, Katey Walter Anthony, David Olefeldt, Edward A. Schuur, Charles Koven, A.D. McGuire, Guido Grosse, Peter Kuhry, Gustaf Hugelius, David M. Lawrence, Carolyn Gibson, A. B. K. Sannel
The dependence of hydroclimate projections in snow‐dominated regions of the western United States on the choice of statistically downscaled climate data
We assess monthly temperature and precipitation data produced by four statistically based techniques that were used to downscale general circulation models (GCMs) in the Climate Model Intercomparison Program Phase 5 (CMIP5) (Taylor et al., 2012). We drive a simple water-balance model with the downscaled data to demonstrate the effect of the methods on the cold season hydrology of three, snow domin
Authors
Jay R. Alder, Steven W. Hostetler
Modeling barrier island habitats using landscape position information
Barrier islands are dynamic environments because of their position along the marine–estuarine interface. Geomorphology influences habitat distribution on barrier islands by regulating exposure to harsh abiotic conditions. Researchers have identified linkages between habitat and landscape position, such as elevation and distance from shore, yet these linkages have not been fully leveraged to develo
Authors
Nicholas Enwright, Lei Wang, Hongqing Wang, Michael Osland, Laura Feher, Sinéad M. Borchert, Richard Day
It’s about time: A synthesis of changing phenology in the Gulf of Maine ecosystem
The timing of recurring biological and seasonal environmental events is changing on a global scale relative to temperature and other climate drivers. This study considers the Gulf of Maine ecosystem, a region of high social and ecological importance in the Northwest Atlantic Ocean and synthesizes current knowledge of 1) key seasonal processes, patterns, and events; 2) direct evidence for shifts in
Authors
Michelle Staudinger, Katherine E. Mills, Karen Stamieszkin, Nicholas R. Record, Christine A. Hudak, Andrew Allyn, Antony Diamond, Kevin Friedland, Walt Golet, Elisabeth Henderson, Christina M. Hernandez, Thomas G. Huntington, Rubao Ji, Catherine L. Johnson, David Samuel Johnson, Adrian Jordaan, John Kocik, Yun Li, Matthew Liebman, Owen C. Nichols, Daniel Pendleton, R. Anne Richards, Thomas Robben, Andrew C. Thomas, Harvey J. Walsh, Keenan Yakola
Modelling development of riparian ranchlands using ecosystem services at the Aravaipa Watershed, SE Arizona
This paper describes how subdivision and development of rangelands within a remote and celebrated semiarid watershed near the US-Mexico border might affect multiple ecohydrological services provided, such as recharge of the aquifer, water and sediment yield, water quality, flow rates and downstream cultural and natural resources. Specifically, we apply an uncalibrated watershed model and land-chan
Authors
Laura Norman, Miguel Villarreal, Rewati Niraula, Mark Haberstich, Natalie Wilson
Advancing barrier island habitat mapping using landscape position information
Barrier islands are dynamic ecosystems that change gradually from coastal processes, including currents and tides, and rapidly from episodic events, such as storms. These islands provide many important ecosystem services, including storm protection and erosion control to the mainland, habitat for fish and wildlife, and tourism. Habitat maps, developed by scientists, provide a critical tool for mon
Authors
Nicholas Enwright, Lei Wang, Sinéad M. Borchert, Richard Day, Laura Feher, Michael Osland
A landscape model of variable social-ecological fire regimes
Fire regimes are now recognized as the product of social processes whereby fire on any landscape is the product of human-generated drivers: climate change, historical patterns of vegetation manipulation, invasive species, active fire suppression, ongoing fuel management efforts, prescribed burning, and accidental ignitions. We developed a new fire model (Social-Climate Related Pyrogenic Processe
Authors
Robert M Scheller, Alec Kretchun, Todd Hawbaker, Paul D. Henne
Hurricane Sandy impacts on coastal wetland resilience
The goal of this research was to evaluate the impacts of Hurricane Sandy on surface elevation trends in estuarine marshes located across the northeast region of the United States from Virginia to Maine using data from an opportunistic (in other words, not strategic) and collaborative network (from here on, an opportunistic network) of surface elevation table-marker horizon (SET-MH) stations. First
Authors
Donald R. Cahoon, Jennifer H. Olker, Alice G. Yeates, Glenn R. Guntenspergen, James B. Grace, Susan C. Adamowicz, Shimon C. Anisfeld, Andrew H. Baldwin, Nels Barrett, Leah Beckett, Alice Benzecry, Linda K. Blum, David M. Burdick, William Crouch, Marci Cole Ekberg, Sarah Fernald, Kristin Wilson Grimes, Joseph Grzyb, Ellen Kracauer Hartig, Danielle A. Kreeger, Marit Larson, Scott Lerberg, James C. Lynch, Nicole Maher, Martha Maxwell-Doyle, Laura R. Mitchell, Jordan Mora, Victoria O'Neill, Angela Padeletti, Diann J. Prosser, Tracy Quirk, Kenneth B. Raposa, William G. Reay, Drexel Siok, Christopher Snow, Adam Starke, J. Court Stevenson, Lorie Staver, Vincent Turner
Which trees die during drought? The key role of insect host-tree selection
1. During drought, the tree subpopulations (such as size or vigor classes) that suffer disproportionate mortality can be conceptually arrayed along a continuum defined by the actions of biotic agents, particularly insects. At one extreme, stress dominates: insects are absent or simply kill the most physiologically stressed trees. At the opposite extreme, host selection dominates: outbreaking
Authors
Nathan L. Stephenson, Adrian J. Das, Nicholas J. Ampersee, Beverly M Bulaon, Julie L. Yee
Bioavailable iron production in airborne mineral dust: Controls by chemical composition and solar flux
A large part of oceanic biological production is limited by the scarcity of dissolved iron. Mineral dust aerosol, processed under acidic atmospheric conditions, is the primary natural source of bioavailable iron to oceanic life. However, synergistic and antagonistic effects of non-Fe-containing minerals on atmospheric processing of Fe-containing minerals and Fe solubilization are poorly understood
Authors
Eshani Hettiarachchi, Richard L. Reynolds, Harland L. Goldstein, Bruce M. Moskowitz, Gayan Rubasinghege
Relative prediction intervals reveal larger uncertainty in 3D approaches to predictive digital soil mapping of soil properties with legacy data
Fine scale maps of soil properties enable efficient land management and inform earth system models. Recent efforts to create soil property maps from field observations tend to use similar tree-based machine learning interpolation approaches, but often deal with depth of predictions, validation, and uncertainty differently. One of the main differences in approaches is whether to model individual de
Authors
Travis Nauman, Michael C. Duniway
Simulating the effects of climate variability on waterbodies and wetland-dependent birds in the Prairie Pothole Region
Understanding how bird populations respond to changes in waterbody availability in the climatically variable Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) of North America hinges on being able to couple hydrological and climate modeling to represent potential future landscapes. Model experiments run with the Pothole Complex Hydrologic Model using downscaled climate data (variables relating to precipitation, temper
Authors
N.E. Mcintyre, G. Liu, J. Gorzo, C.K. Wright, Glenn R. Guntenspergen, F. Schwartz