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Publications

Publications, scientific literature, and information products from the Land Change Science Program.

Filter Total Items: 562

Adaptation with climate uncertainty: An examination of agricultural land use in the United States

This paper examines adaptation responses to climate change through adjustment of agricultural land use. The climate drivers we examine are changes in long-term climate normals (e.g., 10-year moving averages) and changes in inter-annual climate variability. Using US county level data over 1982 to 2012 from Census of Agriculture, we find that impacts of long-term climate normals are as important as
Authors
Jianhong E. Mu, Bruce A. McCarl, Benjamin M. Sleeter, John T. Abatzoglou, Hongliang Zhang

Diurnal patterns of methane flux from a seasonal wetland: mechanisms and methodology

Methane emissions from wetlands are temporally dynamic. Few chamber-based studies have explored diurnal variation in methane flux with high temporal replication. Using an automated sampling system, we measured methane flux every 2.5 to 4 h for 205 diel cycles during three growing seasons (2013–2015) from a seasonal wetland in the Prairie Pothole Region of North America. During ponded conditions, f
Authors
Sheel Bansal, Brian Tangen, Raymond Finocchiaro

Dryland photoautotrophic soil surface communities endangered by global change

Photoautotrophic surface communities forming biological soil crusts (biocrusts) are crucial for soil stability as well as water, nutrient and trace gas cycling at regional and global scales. Quantitative information on their global coverage and the environmental factors driving their distribution patterns, however, are not readily available. We use observations and environmental modelling to estim
Authors
Emilio Rodriguez-Caballero, Jayne Belnap, Burkhard Büdel, Paul J. Crutzen, Meinrat O. Andreae, Ulrich Pöschl, Bettina Weber

Quantifying relative importance: Computing standardized effects in models with binary outcomes

Scientists commonly ask questions about the relative importances of processes, and then turn to statistical models for answers. Standardized coefficients are typically used in such situations, with the goal being to compare effects on a common scale. Traditional approaches to obtaining standardized coefficients were developed with idealized Gaussian variables in mind. When responses are binary, co
Authors
James B. Grace, Darren Johnson, Jonathan S. Lefcheck, Jarrett E. K. Byrnes

burnr: Fire history analysis and graphics in R

We developed a new software package, burnr, for fire history analysis and plotting in the Rstatistical programming environment. It was developed for tree-ring fire-scar analysis, but is broadly applicable to other event analyses (e.g., avalanches, frost rings, or culturally modified trees). Our new package can read, write, and manipulate standard tree-ring fire history FHX files, produce fire—demo
Authors
Steven B. Malevich, Christopher H. Guiterman, Ellis Margolis

Spatial distribution and ecological risk assessment of heavy metals in coastal surface sediments in the Hebei Province offshore area, Bohai Sea, China

Seven hundred and nine surface sediment samples, along with deeper sediment samples, were collected from Hebei Province along the coastal section of the Bohai Sea, China, and analyzed for grain size, concentrations of organic carbon (Corg) and heavy metals (Cu, Pb, Zn, Cr, Cd, As, and Hg). Results indicated that the average concentrations in the sediments were 16.1 mg/kg (Cu), 19.4 mg/kg (Pb), 50
Authors
Xigui Ding, Siyuan Ye, Hongming Yuan, Ken W. Krauss

Phosphorus speciation and solubility in aeolian dust deposited in the interior American West

Aeolian dust is a significant source of phosphorus (P) to alpine oligotrophic lakes, but P speciation in dust and source sediments and its release kinetics to lake water remain unknown. Phosphorus K-edge XANES spectroscopy shows that calcium-bound P (Ca−P) is dominant in 10 of 12 dust samples (41−74%) deposited on snow in the central Rocky Mountains and all 42 source sediment samples (the fine fra
Authors
Zhuojun Zhang, Harland L. Goldstein, Richard L. Reynolds, Yongfeng Hu, Xiaoming Wang, Mengqiang Zhu

Atmospheric and surface climate associated with 1986–2013 wildfires in North America

We analyze climate simulations conducted with the RegCM3 regional climate model on 50‐ and 15‐km model grids to diagnose the dependence of wildfire incidence and area burned variations on monthly climate long‐term means and anomalies over North America for the period 1986–2013. We created a new wildfire database by merging the Fire Program Analysis Fire‐Occurrence Database, the National Interagenc
Authors
Steven W. Hostetler, Patrick J. Bartlein, Jay R. Alder

Associations between urban sprawl and life expectancy in the United States

In recent years, the United States has had a relatively poor performance with respect to life expectancy compared to the other developed nations. Urban sprawl is one of the potential causes of the high rate of mortality in the United States. This study investigated cross-sectional associations between sprawl and life expectancy for metropolitan counties in the United States in 2010. In this study,
Authors
Shima Hamidi, Reid Ewing, Zaria Tatalovich, James B. Grace, David Berrigan

The role of the upper tidal estuary in wetland blue carbon storage and flux

Carbon (C) standing stocks, C mass balance, and soil C burial in tidal freshwater forested wetlands (TFFW) and TFFW transitioning to low‐salinity marshes along the upper estuary are not typically included in “blue carbon” accounting, but may represent a significant C sink. Results from two salinity transects along the tidal Waccamaw and Savannah rivers of the US Atlantic Coast show total C standin
Authors
Ken W. Krauss, Gregory B. Noe, Jamie A. Duberstein, William H. Conner, Camille L. Stagg, Nicole Cormier, Miriam C. Jones, Christopher E. Bernhardt, B. Graeme Lockaby, Andrew S. From, Thomas W. Doyle, Richard H. Day, Scott H. Ensign, Katherine N. Pierfelice, Cliff R. Hupp, Alex T. Chow, Julie L. Whitbeck

Advancing dendrochronological studies of fire in the United States

Dendroecology is the science that dates tree rings to their exact calendar year of formation to study processes that influence forest ecology (e.g., Speer 2010, Amoroso et al., 2017). Reconstruction of past fire regimes is a core application of dendroecology, linking fire history to population dynamics and climate effects on tree growth and survivorship. Since the early 20th century when dendrochr
Authors
Grant L. Harley, Christopher H. Baisan, Peter M. Brown, Donald A. Falk, William T. Flatley, Henri D. Grissino-Mayer, Amy Hessl, Emily K. Heyerdahl, Margot W. Kaye, Charles W. Lafon, Ellis Margolis, R. Stockton Maxwell, Adam T. Naito, William J. Platt, Monica T. Rother, Thomas Saladyga, Rosemary L. Sherriff, Lauren A. Stachowiak, Michael C. Stambaugh, Elaine Kennedy Sutherland, Alan H. Taylor

Herbivory and eutrophication mediate grassland plant nutrient responses across a global climatic gradient

Plant stoichiometry, the relative concentration of elements, is a key regulator of ecosystem functioning and is also being altered by human activities. In this paper we sought to understand the global drivers of plant stoichiometry and compare the relative contribution of climatic vs. anthropogenic effects. We addressed this goal by measuring plant elemental (C, N, P and K) responses to eutrophica
Authors
T. Michael Anderson, Daniel M. Griffith, James B. Grace, Eric M. Lind, Peter B. Adler, Lori A. Biederman, Dana M. Blumenthal, Pedro Daleo, Jennifer Firn, Nicole Hagenah, W. Stanley Harpole, Andrew S. MacDougall, Rebecca L. McCulley, Suzanne M. Prober, Anita C. Risch, Mahesh Sankaran, Martin Schütz, Eric W. Seabloom, Carly J. Stevens, Lauren Sullivan, Peter Wragg, Elizabeth T. Borer