James Nichols, Ph.D. (Former Employee)

Change in the size of populations over space and time is, arguably, the motivation for much of pure and applied ecological research. The fundamental model for the dynamics of any population is straightforward: the net change in the abundance is the simple difference between the number of individuals entering the population and the number leaving the population, either or both of which...

1. Acoustic surveys have become a common survey method for bats and other vocal taxa. Previous work shows that bat echolocation may be misidentified, but common analytic methods, such as occupancy models, assume that misidentifications do not occur. Unless rare, such misidentifications could lead to incorrect inferences with significant management implications. 2. We fit a false-positive...

Ecosystems within parks and protected areas in the United States and throughout the world are being transformed at an unprecedented rate. Changes associated with natural hazards, greenhouse gas emissions, and increasing demands for water, food, land, energy and mineral resources are placing urgency on sound decision making that will help sustain our Nation’s economic and environmental...

Population models are essential components of large-scale conservation and management plans for the federally endangered Golden-cheeked Warbler (Setophaga chrysoparia; hereafter GCWA). However, existing models are based on vital rate estimates calculated using relatively small data sets that are now more than a decade old. We estimated more current, precise adult and juvenile apparent...

Land cover modeling is used to inform land management, but most often via a two-step process, where science informs how management alternatives can influence resources, and then, decision makers can use this information to make decisions. A more efficient process is to directly integrate science and decision-making, where science allows us to learn in order to better accomplish...

Occupancy surveys collecting data from adjacent (sometimes correlated) spatial replicates have become relatively popular for logistical reasons. Hines et al. (2010) presented one approach to modelling such data for single-season occupancy surveys. Here, we present a multiseason analogue of this model (with corresponding software) for inferences about occupancy dynamics. We include a new...

Research in structural monitoring has focused primarily on drawing inference about the health of a structure from the structure’s response to ambient or applied excitation. Knowledge of the current state can then be used to predict structural integrity at a future time and, in principle, allows one to take action to improve safety, minimize ownership costs, and/or increase the operating...

Point counts are commonly used for bird surveys, but interpretation is ambiguous unless there is an accounting for the imperfect detection of individuals. We show how repeated point counts, supplemented by observation distances, can account for two aspects of the counting process: (1) detection of birds conditional on being available for observation and (2) the availability of birds for...

Metapopulation ecology is a field that is richer in theory than in empirical results. Many existing empirical studies use an incidence function approach based on spatial patterns and key assumptions about extinction and colonization rates. Here we recast these assumptions as hypotheses to be tested using 18 years of historic detection survey data combined with four years of data from a...

In this chapter, we demonstrate the application of the various classes of thresholds, detailed in earlier chapters and elsewhere, via an actual but simplified natural resource management case study. We intend our example to provide the reader with the ability to recognize and apply the theoretical concepts of utility, ecological and decision thresholds to management problems through a...

A conceptual framework is provided for considering the threshold concept in natural resource management and conservation. We define three kinds of thresholds relevant to management and conservation. Ecological thresholds are values of system state variables at which small changes bring about substantial or specified changes in system dynamics. They are frequently incorporated into...

Virus detection and mathematical modeling have gone through rapid developments in the past decade. Both offer new insights into the epidemiology of infectious disease and characterization of future risk; however, modeling has not yet been applied to designing the best surveillance strategies for viral and pathogen discovery. We review recent developments and propose methods to integrate...