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Publications

Publications, scientific literature, and information products from the Land Change Science Program.

Filter Total Items: 562

Glaciers and ice caps outside Greenland

Mountain glaciers and ice caps cover an area of over 400 000 km2 in the Arctic, and are a major influence on global sea level (Gardner et al. 2011, 2013; Jacob et al. 2012). They gain mass by snow accumulation and lose mass by meltwater runoff. Where they terminate in water (ocean or lake), they also lose mass by iceberg calving. The climatic mass balance (Bclim, the difference between annual snow
Authors
Marin Sharp, G. Wolken, D. Burgess, J.G. Cogley, L. Copland, L. Thomson, A. Arendt, B. Wouters, J. Kohler, L. M. Andreassen, Shad O'Neel, M. Pelto

Long-term shifts in the phenology of rare and endemic Rocky Mountain plants

PREMISE OF THE STUDY: Mountainous regions support high plant productivity, diversity, and endemism, yet are highly vulnerable to climate change. Historical records and model predictions show increasing temperatures across high elevation regions including the Southern Rocky Mountains, which can have a strong influence on the performance and distribution of montane plant species. Rare plant species
Authors
Seth M. Munson, Anna A Sher

The role of precipitation type, intensity, and spatial distribution in source water quality after wildfire

Storms following wildfires are known to impair drinking water supplies in the southwestern United States, yet our understanding of the role of precipitation in post-wildfire water quality is far from complete. We quantitatively assessed water-quality impacts of different hydrologic events in the Colorado Front Range and found that for a three-year period, substantial hydrologic and geochemical res
Authors
Sheila F. Murphy, Jeffrey H. Writer, R. Blaine McCleskey, Deborah A. Martin

Effects of land use on greenhouse gas fluxes and soil properties of wetland catchments in the Prairie Pothole Region of North America

Wetland restoration has been suggested as policy goal with multiple environmental benefits including enhancement of atmospheric carbon sequestration. However, there are concerns that increased methane (CH4) emissions associated with restoration may outweigh potential benefits. A comprehensive, 4-year study of 119 wetland catchments was conducted in the Prairie Pothole Region of the north-central U
Authors
Brian A. Tangen, Raymond G. Finocchiaro, Robert A. Gleason

Assessing landscape change and processes of recurrence, replacement, and recovery in the Southeastern Coastal Plains, USA

The processes of landscape change are complex, exhibiting spatial variability as well as linear, cyclical, and reversible characteristics. To better understand the various processes that cause transformation, a data aggregation, validation, and attribution approach was developed and applied to an analysis of the Southeastern Coastal Plains (SECP). The approach integrates information from available
Authors
Mark A. Drummond, Michael P. Stier, Roger F. Auch, Janis L. Taylor, Glenn E. Griffith, D. J. Hester, Jodi L. Riegle, Christopher E. Soulard, Jamie L. McBeth

Vulnerabilities and opportunities at the nexus of electricity, water and climate

The articles in this special issue examine the critical nexus of electricity, water, and climate, emphasizing connections among resources;  the prospect of increasing vulnerabilities of water resources and electricity generation in a changing climate;  and the opportunities for research to inform integrated energy and water policy and management measures aimed at reducing vulnerability and increas
Authors
Peter Frumhoff, Virginia Burkett, Robert B. Jackson, Robin Newmark, Jonathan Overpeck, Michael Webber

Mangrove sedimentation and response to relative sea-level rise

Mangroves occur on upper intertidal shorelines in the tropics and subtropics. Complex hydrodynamic and salinity conditions influence mangrove distributions, primarily related to elevation and hydroperiod; this review considers how these adjust through time. Accumulation rates of allochthonous and autochthonous sediment, both inorganic and organic, vary between and within different settings. Abunda
Authors
CD Woodroffe, K. Rogers, Karen L. McKee, CE Lovelock, IA Mendelssohn, N. Saintilan

On underestimation of global vulnerability to tree mortality and forest die-off from hotter drought in the Anthropocene

Patterns, mechanisms, projections, and consequences of tree mortality and associated broad-scale forest die-off due to drought accompanied by warmer temperatures—“hotter drought”, an emerging characteristic of the Anthropocene—are the focus of rapidly expanding literature. Despite recent observational, experimental, and modeling studies suggesting increased vulnerability of trees to hotter drought
Authors
Craig D. Allen, David D. Breshears, Nathan G. McDowell

Response of plant productivity to experimental flooding in a stable and a submerging marsh

Recent models of tidal marsh evolution rely largely on the premise that plants are most productive at an optimal flooding regime that occurs when soil elevations are somewhere between mean sea level and mean high tide. Here, we use 4 years of manipulative “marsh organ” flooding experiments to test the generality of this conceptual framework and to examine how the optimal flooding frequency may cha
Authors
Matthew L. Kirwan, Glenn R. Guntenspergen

Compact development and VMT: environmental determinism, self-selection, or some of both?

There is a long-running debate in the planning literature about the effects of the built environment on travel behavior and the degree to which apparent effects are due to the tendency of households to self-select into neighborhoods that reinforce their travel preferences. Those who want to walk will choose walkable neighborhoods, and those who want to use transit will choose transit-served neighb
Authors
Reid Ewing, Shima Hamidi, James B. Grace

Spatial scaling patterns and functional redundancies in a changing boreal lake landscape

Global transformations extend beyond local habitats; therefore, larger-scale approaches are needed to assess community-level responses and resilience to unfolding environmental changes. Using longterm data (1996–2011), we evaluated spatial patterns and functional redundancies in the littoral invertebrate communities of 85 Swedish lakes, with the objective of assessing their potential resilience to
Authors
David G. Angeler, Craig R. Allen, Daniel R. Uden, Richard K. Johnson

Evaluation of habitat suitability index models by global sensitivity and uncertainty analyses: a case study for submerged aquatic vegetation

Habitat suitability index (HSI) models are commonly used to predict habitat quality and species distributions and are used to develop biological surveys, assess reserve and management priorities, and anticipate possible change under different management or climate change scenarios. Important management decisions may be based on model results, often without a clear understanding of the level of unc
Authors
Zuzanna Zajac, Bradley Stith, Andrea C. Bowling, Catherine A. Langtimm, Eric D. Swain