Brian W Miller, Ph.D.
Dr. Brian Miller is a Research Ecologist with the North Central Climate Adaptation Science Center, one of the nine regional centers that form the National and Regional Climate Adaptation Science Center (CASC) network.
The USGS CASC program teams scientists with natural and cultural resource managers and local communities to help fish, wildlife, water, land, and people adapt to a changing climate. Brian focuses on developing and applying scenario planning, ecological simulation modeling, and related tools to help partners navigate climate change impacts and adaptation options. Brian has an interdisciplinary background studying human-environment interactions. He earned a bachelor’s degree in Ecology and Evolutionary Biology from the University of Colorado at Boulder, and a Ph.D. in Ecology from the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill where he also worked at the Carolina Population Center.
Education and Certifications
Ph.D. in Ecology, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
B.A. in Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Colorado at Boulder
Science and Products
Filter Total Items: 19
Filter Total Items: 55
It’s complicated…environmental DNA as a predictor of trout and char abundance in streams
The potential to provide inferences about fish abundance from environmental (e)DNA samples has generated great interest. However, the accuracy of these abundance estimates is often low and variable across species and space. A plausible refinement is the use of common aquatic habitat monitoring data to account for attributes that influence eDNA dynamics. We therefore evaluated the...
Authors
Adam Sepulveda, Robert K. Al-Chokhachy, Matthew Laramie, Kyle Crapster, Ladd Knotek, Brian W. Miller, Alexander V. Zale, David Pilliod
Ecological forecasting—21st century science for 21st century management
Natural resource managers are coping with rapid changes in both environmental conditions and ecosystems. Enabled by recent advances in data collection and assimilation, short-term ecological forecasting may be a powerful tool to help resource managers anticipate impending near-term changes in ecosystem conditions or dynamics. Managers may use the information in forecasts to minimize the...
Authors
John Bradford, Jake Weltzin, Molly L. McCormick, Jill Baron, Zachary H. Bowen, R. Sky Bristol, Daren M. Carlisle, Theresa Crimmins, Paul C. Cross, Joe DeVivo, Mike Dietze, Mary Freeman, Jason Goldberg, Mevin Hooten, Leslie Hsu, Karen Jenni, Jennifer L. Keisman, Jonathan Kennen, Kathy Lee, David P. Lesmes, Keith Loftin, Brian W. Miller, Peter S. Murdoch, Jana Newman, Karen L. Prentice, Imtiaz Rangwala, Jordan S. Read, Jennifer Sieracki, Helen Sofaer, Steve Thur, Gordon Toevs, Francisco Werner, C. LeAnn White, Timothy White, Mark T. Wiltermuth
By
Ecosystems Mission Area, Water Resources Mission Area, Science Synthesis, Analysis and Research Program, Contaminant Biology, Environmental Health Program, Science Analytics and Synthesis (SAS) Program, Eastern Ecological Science Center, Fort Collins Science Center, Kansas Water Science Center, Maryland-Delaware-D.C. Water Science Center, National Wildlife Health Center, New Jersey Water Science Center, Pacific Island Ecosystems Research Center, Southwest Biological Science Center, Upper Midwest Environmental Sciences Center, Upper Midwest Water Science Center
Report on the workshop ‘Next Steps in Developing Nature Futures’
The workshop ‘New Narratives for Nature: operationalizing the IPBES Nature Futures Scenarios’ was organised by the IPBES task force on scenarios and models and hosted by the Institute for Global Environmental Strategies (IGES), with support from the research team on “Predicting and Assessing Natural Capital and Ecosystem Services through an Integrated Social-Ecological Systems Approach...
Authors
Machteld Schoolenberg, Sana Okayasu, Rob Alkemade, Amanda Krijgsman, Ana Paula Dutra de Aguiar, Shizuka Hashimoto, Carolyn J. Lundquist, Laura Pereira, Garry Peterson, Dolors Armenteras, William W. L. Cheung, Mariteuw Chimère Diaw, América Paz Durán, Maria Gasalla, Ghassen Halouani, Paula Harrisson, Sylvia Karlsson-Vinkhuyzen, HyeJin Kim, Jan J. Kuiper, Brian W. Miller, Yasuo Takahashi, Ramón Pichs
Do empirical observations support commonly-held climate change range shift hypotheses? A systematic review protocol
Background Among the most widely anticipated climate-related impacts to biodiversity are geographic range shifts, whereby species shift their spatial distribution in response to changing climate conditions. In particular, a series of commonly articulated hypotheses have emerged: species are expected to shift their distributions to higher latitudes, greater elevations, and deeper depths...
Authors
Madeleine A. Rubenstein, Sarah R. Weiskopf, Shawn L. Carter, Mitchell J. Eaton, Ciara G. Johnson, Abigail Lynch, Brian W. Miller, Toni Lyn Morelli, Mari Angel Rodriguez, Adam Terando, Laura M. Thompson
A draft decision framework for the National Park Service Interior Region 5 bison stewardship strategy
The Department of the Interior Bison Conservation Initiative calls for its bureaus to plan and implement collaborative American bison conservation and to ensure involvement by tribal, state, and local governments and the public in that conservation. Four independently managed and geographically separated National Park Service (NPS) units in Interior Region 5 (IR5) preserve bison and...
Authors
Amy Symstad, Brian W. Miller, Tanya M. Shenk, Nicole D. Athearn, Michael Runge
Report on the workshop 'Global modelling of biodiversity and ecosystem services'
A three-day workshop on ‘Global Modelling of Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services’, was held in the Hague, Netherlands, from 24th to 26th June 2019. The workshop, attended by 35 modelling and scenario-building experts, was organised on behalf of the former IPBES1 expert group on scenarios and models of the first IPBES work programme by its interim technical support unit, and hosted by the...
Authors
Sana Okayasu, Machteld Schoolenberg, Eefje den Belder, Ghassen Halouani, HyeJin Kim, Brian W. Miller
Implications of climate scenarios for Badlands National Park resource management
Badlands National Park (BADL) hosts a myriad of natural and cultural resources, including bison and black-footed ferrets, the mixed grass prairie they live in, 37-75 million-year-old fossils, and historic buildings, trails, and roads. All are sensitive to climate, but anticipating precisely how each will be affected by climate change is difficult. In the face of this challenge, park...
Authors
Brian W. Miller, Amy Symstad, Gregor W. Schuurman
Grounding simulation models with qualitative case studies: Toward a holistic framework to make climate science usable for US public land management
Policies directing agencies and public land managers to incorporate climate change into management face several barriers. These stem, in part, from a disconnect between the information that is produced and the information needs of local resource managers. A disproportionate focus on the natural and physical sciences in climate vulnerability and adaptation assessment obscure...
Authors
Tyler A. Beeton, Shannon M. McNeeley, Brian W. Miller, Dennis S. Ojima
Moving from eco-forecasts to eco-projections
Ecological models can provide estimates of future conditions that are useful for decision-making, including long-term planning and resource prioritization. However, these models often rely on assumptions about ecological relationships and trajectories, forcings (e.g., biophysical conditions), and management approaches that may not be explicitly considered. To make assumptions more...
Authors
Brian W. Miller, Jeffrey T. Morisette, Gregor W. Schuurman, Jamie K Reaser
Model-based scenario planning to inform climate change adaptation in the Northern Great Plains—Final report
Public SummaryWe worked with managers in two focal areas to plan for the uncertain future by integrating quantitative climate change scenarios and simulation modeling into scenario planning exercises.In our central North Dakota focal area, centered on Knife River Indian Villages National Historic Site, managers are concerned about how changes in flood severity and growing conditions for...
Authors
Amy Symstad, Brian W. Miller, Jonathan M. Friedman, Nicholas A. Fisichelli, Andrea J. Ray, Erika Rowland, Gregor W. Schuurman
Crossing boundaries in a collaborative modeling workspace
There is substantial literature on the importance of bridging across disciplinary and science–management boundaries. One of the ways commonly suggested to cross boundaries is for participants from both sides of the boundary to jointly produce information (i.e., knowledge co-production). But simply providing tools or bringing people together in the same room is not sufficient. Here we...
Authors
Jeffrey T. Morisette, Amanda E. Cravens, Brian W. Miller, Marian Talbert, Colin Talbert, Catherine S. Jarnevich, Michelle Fink, Karin Decker, Eric Odell
Multiple methods for multiple futures: Integrating qualitative scenario planning and quantitative simulation modeling for natural resource decision making
Scenario planning helps managers incorporate climate change into their natural resource decision making through a structured “what-if” process of identifying key uncertainties and potential impacts and responses. Although qualitative scenarios, in which ecosystem responses to climate change are derived via expert opinion, often suffice for managers to begin addressing climate change in...
Authors
Amy Symstad, Nicholas A. Fisichelli, Brian W. Miller, Erika Rowland, Gregor W. Schuurman
Non-USGS Publications**
Miller, B. W. 2015. Using geospatial analysis to assess the influence of land-use change and conservation on pastoralist access to drought resources. Nomadic Peoples 19(1): 120-145.
Miller, B. W., Leslie, P. W., McCabe, J. T. 2014. Coping with natural hazards in a conservation context: resource-use decisions of Maasai households during recent and historical drought. Human Ecology 42(5): 753-768.
Miller, B. W., & Doyle, M. W. 2014. Rangeland management and fluvial geomorphology in northern Tanzania. Geomorphology 214: 366-377.
Miller, B. W., Caplow, S. C., Leslie, P. W. 2012. Feedbacks between conservation and social-ecological systems. Conservation Biology 26(2): 218-227.
Miller, B. W., Breckheimer I., McCleary, A. L., Guzmán-Ramirez, L., Caplow, S. C., Jones-Smith, J. C., Walsh, S. J. 2010. Using stylized agent-based models for population-environment research: a case study from the Galápagos Islands. Population and Environment 31(6): 401-426.
Walsh, S. J., Miller, B. W., Breckheimer, I., McCleary, A. L., Guzman-Ramirez, L., Caplow, S. C., Jones-Smith, J. C. 2009. Complexity Theory and Spatial Simulation Models to Assess Population-Environment Interactions in the Galápagos Islands. In: M. Wolff and M. Gardener (eds.), Proceedings of the Galápagos Science Symposium, Charles Darwin Foundation, Puerto Ayora, Galapagos, Ecuador. Pp 145-148.
**Disclaimer: The views expressed in Non-USGS publications are those of the author and do not represent the views of the USGS, Department of the Interior, or the U.S. Government.
Science and Products
Filter Total Items: 19
Filter Total Items: 55
It’s complicated…environmental DNA as a predictor of trout and char abundance in streams
The potential to provide inferences about fish abundance from environmental (e)DNA samples has generated great interest. However, the accuracy of these abundance estimates is often low and variable across species and space. A plausible refinement is the use of common aquatic habitat monitoring data to account for attributes that influence eDNA dynamics. We therefore evaluated the...
Authors
Adam Sepulveda, Robert K. Al-Chokhachy, Matthew Laramie, Kyle Crapster, Ladd Knotek, Brian W. Miller, Alexander V. Zale, David Pilliod
Ecological forecasting—21st century science for 21st century management
Natural resource managers are coping with rapid changes in both environmental conditions and ecosystems. Enabled by recent advances in data collection and assimilation, short-term ecological forecasting may be a powerful tool to help resource managers anticipate impending near-term changes in ecosystem conditions or dynamics. Managers may use the information in forecasts to minimize the...
Authors
John Bradford, Jake Weltzin, Molly L. McCormick, Jill Baron, Zachary H. Bowen, R. Sky Bristol, Daren M. Carlisle, Theresa Crimmins, Paul C. Cross, Joe DeVivo, Mike Dietze, Mary Freeman, Jason Goldberg, Mevin Hooten, Leslie Hsu, Karen Jenni, Jennifer L. Keisman, Jonathan Kennen, Kathy Lee, David P. Lesmes, Keith Loftin, Brian W. Miller, Peter S. Murdoch, Jana Newman, Karen L. Prentice, Imtiaz Rangwala, Jordan S. Read, Jennifer Sieracki, Helen Sofaer, Steve Thur, Gordon Toevs, Francisco Werner, C. LeAnn White, Timothy White, Mark T. Wiltermuth
By
Ecosystems Mission Area, Water Resources Mission Area, Science Synthesis, Analysis and Research Program, Contaminant Biology, Environmental Health Program, Science Analytics and Synthesis (SAS) Program, Eastern Ecological Science Center, Fort Collins Science Center, Kansas Water Science Center, Maryland-Delaware-D.C. Water Science Center, National Wildlife Health Center, New Jersey Water Science Center, Pacific Island Ecosystems Research Center, Southwest Biological Science Center, Upper Midwest Environmental Sciences Center, Upper Midwest Water Science Center
Report on the workshop ‘Next Steps in Developing Nature Futures’
The workshop ‘New Narratives for Nature: operationalizing the IPBES Nature Futures Scenarios’ was organised by the IPBES task force on scenarios and models and hosted by the Institute for Global Environmental Strategies (IGES), with support from the research team on “Predicting and Assessing Natural Capital and Ecosystem Services through an Integrated Social-Ecological Systems Approach...
Authors
Machteld Schoolenberg, Sana Okayasu, Rob Alkemade, Amanda Krijgsman, Ana Paula Dutra de Aguiar, Shizuka Hashimoto, Carolyn J. Lundquist, Laura Pereira, Garry Peterson, Dolors Armenteras, William W. L. Cheung, Mariteuw Chimère Diaw, América Paz Durán, Maria Gasalla, Ghassen Halouani, Paula Harrisson, Sylvia Karlsson-Vinkhuyzen, HyeJin Kim, Jan J. Kuiper, Brian W. Miller, Yasuo Takahashi, Ramón Pichs
Do empirical observations support commonly-held climate change range shift hypotheses? A systematic review protocol
Background Among the most widely anticipated climate-related impacts to biodiversity are geographic range shifts, whereby species shift their spatial distribution in response to changing climate conditions. In particular, a series of commonly articulated hypotheses have emerged: species are expected to shift their distributions to higher latitudes, greater elevations, and deeper depths...
Authors
Madeleine A. Rubenstein, Sarah R. Weiskopf, Shawn L. Carter, Mitchell J. Eaton, Ciara G. Johnson, Abigail Lynch, Brian W. Miller, Toni Lyn Morelli, Mari Angel Rodriguez, Adam Terando, Laura M. Thompson
A draft decision framework for the National Park Service Interior Region 5 bison stewardship strategy
The Department of the Interior Bison Conservation Initiative calls for its bureaus to plan and implement collaborative American bison conservation and to ensure involvement by tribal, state, and local governments and the public in that conservation. Four independently managed and geographically separated National Park Service (NPS) units in Interior Region 5 (IR5) preserve bison and...
Authors
Amy Symstad, Brian W. Miller, Tanya M. Shenk, Nicole D. Athearn, Michael Runge
Report on the workshop 'Global modelling of biodiversity and ecosystem services'
A three-day workshop on ‘Global Modelling of Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services’, was held in the Hague, Netherlands, from 24th to 26th June 2019. The workshop, attended by 35 modelling and scenario-building experts, was organised on behalf of the former IPBES1 expert group on scenarios and models of the first IPBES work programme by its interim technical support unit, and hosted by the...
Authors
Sana Okayasu, Machteld Schoolenberg, Eefje den Belder, Ghassen Halouani, HyeJin Kim, Brian W. Miller
Implications of climate scenarios for Badlands National Park resource management
Badlands National Park (BADL) hosts a myriad of natural and cultural resources, including bison and black-footed ferrets, the mixed grass prairie they live in, 37-75 million-year-old fossils, and historic buildings, trails, and roads. All are sensitive to climate, but anticipating precisely how each will be affected by climate change is difficult. In the face of this challenge, park...
Authors
Brian W. Miller, Amy Symstad, Gregor W. Schuurman
Grounding simulation models with qualitative case studies: Toward a holistic framework to make climate science usable for US public land management
Policies directing agencies and public land managers to incorporate climate change into management face several barriers. These stem, in part, from a disconnect between the information that is produced and the information needs of local resource managers. A disproportionate focus on the natural and physical sciences in climate vulnerability and adaptation assessment obscure...
Authors
Tyler A. Beeton, Shannon M. McNeeley, Brian W. Miller, Dennis S. Ojima
Moving from eco-forecasts to eco-projections
Ecological models can provide estimates of future conditions that are useful for decision-making, including long-term planning and resource prioritization. However, these models often rely on assumptions about ecological relationships and trajectories, forcings (e.g., biophysical conditions), and management approaches that may not be explicitly considered. To make assumptions more...
Authors
Brian W. Miller, Jeffrey T. Morisette, Gregor W. Schuurman, Jamie K Reaser
Model-based scenario planning to inform climate change adaptation in the Northern Great Plains—Final report
Public SummaryWe worked with managers in two focal areas to plan for the uncertain future by integrating quantitative climate change scenarios and simulation modeling into scenario planning exercises.In our central North Dakota focal area, centered on Knife River Indian Villages National Historic Site, managers are concerned about how changes in flood severity and growing conditions for...
Authors
Amy Symstad, Brian W. Miller, Jonathan M. Friedman, Nicholas A. Fisichelli, Andrea J. Ray, Erika Rowland, Gregor W. Schuurman
Crossing boundaries in a collaborative modeling workspace
There is substantial literature on the importance of bridging across disciplinary and science–management boundaries. One of the ways commonly suggested to cross boundaries is for participants from both sides of the boundary to jointly produce information (i.e., knowledge co-production). But simply providing tools or bringing people together in the same room is not sufficient. Here we...
Authors
Jeffrey T. Morisette, Amanda E. Cravens, Brian W. Miller, Marian Talbert, Colin Talbert, Catherine S. Jarnevich, Michelle Fink, Karin Decker, Eric Odell
Multiple methods for multiple futures: Integrating qualitative scenario planning and quantitative simulation modeling for natural resource decision making
Scenario planning helps managers incorporate climate change into their natural resource decision making through a structured “what-if” process of identifying key uncertainties and potential impacts and responses. Although qualitative scenarios, in which ecosystem responses to climate change are derived via expert opinion, often suffice for managers to begin addressing climate change in...
Authors
Amy Symstad, Nicholas A. Fisichelli, Brian W. Miller, Erika Rowland, Gregor W. Schuurman
Non-USGS Publications**
Miller, B. W. 2015. Using geospatial analysis to assess the influence of land-use change and conservation on pastoralist access to drought resources. Nomadic Peoples 19(1): 120-145.
Miller, B. W., Leslie, P. W., McCabe, J. T. 2014. Coping with natural hazards in a conservation context: resource-use decisions of Maasai households during recent and historical drought. Human Ecology 42(5): 753-768.
Miller, B. W., & Doyle, M. W. 2014. Rangeland management and fluvial geomorphology in northern Tanzania. Geomorphology 214: 366-377.
Miller, B. W., Caplow, S. C., Leslie, P. W. 2012. Feedbacks between conservation and social-ecological systems. Conservation Biology 26(2): 218-227.
Miller, B. W., Breckheimer I., McCleary, A. L., Guzmán-Ramirez, L., Caplow, S. C., Jones-Smith, J. C., Walsh, S. J. 2010. Using stylized agent-based models for population-environment research: a case study from the Galápagos Islands. Population and Environment 31(6): 401-426.
Walsh, S. J., Miller, B. W., Breckheimer, I., McCleary, A. L., Guzman-Ramirez, L., Caplow, S. C., Jones-Smith, J. C. 2009. Complexity Theory and Spatial Simulation Models to Assess Population-Environment Interactions in the Galápagos Islands. In: M. Wolff and M. Gardener (eds.), Proceedings of the Galápagos Science Symposium, Charles Darwin Foundation, Puerto Ayora, Galapagos, Ecuador. Pp 145-148.
**Disclaimer: The views expressed in Non-USGS publications are those of the author and do not represent the views of the USGS, Department of the Interior, or the U.S. Government.